Introduction

Last week’s markets were mixed, with EUR/NZD, Gold, WTI and Bitcoin leading their respective markets, while this week’s focus shifts to ECB rates at 2.65% on Thursday and U.S. CPI at 0.4% on Friday, alongside key technical levels in EUR/USD, Gold, USOIL, BTC/USD and Nvidia.

Previous Week’s Market Recap

Forex: Forex markets were shaped by hawkish Fed expectations, stronger U.S. jobs data, RBNZ dovishness and Middle East tensions. EUR/NZD was the top performer, climbing toward 2.0000, as the NZD weakened following the RBNZ’s cautious rate hike. The top losers were NZD/JPY and NZD/CAD, pressured by broad NZD weakness and stronger safe-haven JPY demand.

Metals: Gold was the top performer, recovering from around $4,435–$4,451 to $4,521/oz, supported by safe-haven demand and inflation concerns. Silver was the top loser, dropping from $66.94–$67.35 to a mid-week low of $63.87–$64.27, before recovering to around $66.67/oz amid stronger rate and industrial pressures.

Energy: USOIL (WTI) was the top performer, gaining 10.4% to $91.36/bbl, while UKOIL (Brent) gained 7.6% to $95.52/bbl. The rally was driven by escalating U.S.–Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz supply-disruption risks, with WTI outperforming on stronger U.S. fuel-market pressures and a technical breakout.

Crypto: Bitcoin (BTC) led the crypto market, rising 4.5% from $77,673 to $81,240, while Ethereum (ETH) gained 4.3% from around $2,417 to $2,522. BTC’s stronger performance was supported by $987M in spot ETF inflows, versus $218M for ETH, strong institutional demand, and a breakout above $81K.

Stocks & Indices: The Nasdaq Composite was the top-performing major index, gaining 0.4%, while the Dow Jones was the top loser, falling 0.3%. Among individual stocks, Sandisk (SNDK) led the gainers with +11.9%, while Lululemon (LULU) was among the biggest losers, falling 17.4%.

Important Events This Week:

FOREX : EURUSD

EUROZONE INTEREST RATES AND US CPI : Eurozone: On Thursday, 10 September at 12:15 PM GMT, the ECB is expected to keep rates at 2.65%, with policymakers balancing inflation risks, geopolitical uncertainty, and weaker growth while keeping the possibility of further tightening open. U.S. CPI: On Friday, 11 September at 12:30 PM GMT, U.S. CPI is forecast at 0.4%, following a 0.1% rise in July after June’s 0.4% decline; higher shelter and food prices remain key inflation drivers, while gasoline prices fell 2.9%.

EURUSD

EUR/USD is testing key support at 1.16103. A break and hold above 1.16497 could support a BUY toward 1.16892, with SL 1.16103 and RR around 1:1.7. A rejection from 1.16497 could trigger a SELL toward 1.15464, with SL 1.16892 and RR around 1:2.6. A break below 1.16103 would strengthen the bearish outlook toward 1.15464, with further downside possible toward 1.15170.

METALS : XAUUSD ( GOLD )

This week, Gold (XAU/USD) will mainly be influenced by U.S. CPI and PPI data, Fed rate-hike expectations, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields and ongoing U.S.–Iran/Middle East tensions, stronger-than-expected inflation could lift yields and the dollar, putting pressure on gold, while weaker inflation or heightened geopolitical risk could support safe-haven demand.

GOLD (XAU/USD) is testing key support at 4,388.995. A hold and rebound above this level could support a BUY toward 4,641.523, with SL 4,301.551 and RR around 1:2.9. A break and retest below 4,388.995 could trigger a SELL toward 4,301.551, with SL 4,440.000 and RR around 1:1.7. A break below 4,301.551 would strengthen the bearish outlook toward 4,232.902, with further downside possible toward 4,184.685.

ENERGY : USOIL

This week prices could remain bullish and volatile, driven mainly by escalating U.S.–Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz supply risks, while falling U.S. crude inventories and steady OPEC+ output support prices. However, U.S. CPI/PPI data, a stronger dollar, demand concerns, or easing Middle East tensions could pressure oil lower.

WTI Crude Oil is testing key resistance at 92.57. A break and retest above 92.57 could support a BUY toward 103.81, with SL 88.68 and RR around 1:2.9. A rejection from 92.57 could trigger a SELL toward 88.68, with SL 93.23 and RR around 1:5.9. A break below 88.68 would strengthen the bearish outlook toward 85.62, with further downside possible toward 83.48.

CRYPTO : BTCUSD ( BITCOIN )

This week, BTC price could be driven mainly by U.S. CPI and PPI data, Fed rate expectations, ETF inflows/outflows, U.S. yields and the dollar, Middle East tensions, and the $80K–$81K technical zone; a hotter CPI or stronger Fed-hike expectations could pressure BTC, while softer inflation, strong ETF inflows, and improving risk sentiment could support a move higher.

BTC/USD is testing key resistance around 79,600. A break and retest above 79,600 could support a BUY toward 90,451, with SL 76,136 and RR around 1:3.1. A rejection from 79,600 could trigger a SELL toward 76,136, with SL 80,000 and RR around 1:8.7. A break below 76,136 would strengthen the bearish outlook toward 73,246, with further downside possible toward 71,216.

STOCKS : NVIDIA

This week, Nvidia (NVDA) could be driven mainly by U.S. CPI and PPI data, Fed rate expectations, Treasury yields, AI/semiconductor demand, Big Tech and AI-related news, and U.S.–Iran tensions; stronger inflation and higher yields could pressure NVDA, while softer inflation, falling yields and continued strong AI demand could support the stock.

NVIDIA (NVDA) is testing key resistance at 230.67. A break and retest above 230.67 could support a BUY toward 256.29, with SL 221.80 and RR around 1:2.9. A rejection from 230.67 could trigger a SELL toward 221.80, with SL 236.48 and RR around 1:1.5. A break below 221.80 would strengthen the bearish outlook toward 214.83, with further downside possible toward 209.94.

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Weekly Market Outlook: Gold Recovers to $4,521, WTI Surges 10.4%, Bitcoin Gains 4.5% & Nasdaq Rises 0.4% — What’s Next This Week?