Week Ahead July 3 – 7

EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session marginally higher after a choppy weekly trading session. The better than expected economic releases in the US helped the US Dollar and pushed the pair lower during last week’s mid trading session, although, the softer US CPI release by the end of the week erased expectation for a rate hike and this triggered a sell-off in the US Dollar and helped the pair recovering all lost ground. The higher than expected CPI in the EU was an additional factor behind Euro’s rally as is adding pressure on the ECB to continue their aggressive rate decision policy to fight inflation.

As for this week traders and investors will mainly focus on the non-farm payrolls in the US. A better than expected number could help US Dollar. FOMC minutes are due to be release on Wednesday, although little interest will be paid upon them as it will be only releasing of minutes, without interest rate decision. Extra attention on ECB’s officials’ speeches as they may signal another rate hike on the next ECB meeting. The higher than expected CPI from last week added expectation for a new rate hike.

On the economic calendar we have on Monday the US ISM Manufacturing PMI pointing higher at 47.2 On Thursday, European retail sales expected higher at 0.2%US ADP employment to show additional 180K new jobs and US ISM services PMI expected higher at 50.5 On Friday the US non-farm payroll expected at 200K new jobs with the average hourly earnings to remain unchanged at 0.3%

Technically the picture is positive after last week’s break and close above 23.6%. In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the upside will re-test 1.1100 if breaks above will re-test 1.1100 (0%) Alternative a break and close below 1.0814 (38.2%) will change the picture back to negative and test 1.0720 (50%). Our traders are short at 1.0915 -1.1000 targeting profits at 1.0800 we are expecting more aggressive short sellers on the way up and new buyers at 1.0815

GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session marginally lower on better than expected US economic releases. An attempt to break lower on upbeat economic releases halted after the US CPI released. The softer than expected CPI triggered a sell-off in US Dollar and helped the pair to recover all lost ground. The recent CPI release erased all possibilities of another rate hike and this could help the pair continue on the upside in the coming sessions.

As for this week traders and investors will mainly focus on the US non-farm payroll and the speeches from FED’s Officials followed the FOMC minutes release. A better than expected non-farm payroll could be balanced by dovish FOMC and keep the pair trading in the same tide range. The lack of any economic releases in the UK will keep the pair on the US Dollar’s mercy.

In the economic calendar we have on Monday the US ISM Manufacturing PMI pointing higher at 47.2 On Thursday, US ADP employment to show additional 180K new jobs and US ISM services PMI expected higher at 50.5 On Friday the US non-farm payroll expected at 200K new jobs with the average hourly earnings to remain unchanged at 0.3%

Technically the pair is positive after last week’s close, at 1.2695 As for this week, if pair continues on the upside, will re-test 1.2923 Alternative, if resumes the downside, will retest 1.2510 (23.6%) New short sellers appeared at 1.2790 targeting profits at 1.2510 we are expecting more aggressive short sellers on the way up and new buyers at 1.2510

For more detailed economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on: 

http://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/

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