Week Ahead May 29 – June 2

EUR/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL

Pair closed last week’s trading session lower on upbeat US economic releases, backed by hawkish FED comments. The better than expected US durable goods orders and FED’s comments for another rate hike in June, was more than expected to push the pair lower as demand for the US Dollar continues to surge. From the ECB side the comments were more over the same highlighting once again that the central bank will maintain its policy unchanged until inflation will come back to normal levels. ECB kept the door open for another 1.5% increase in interest rate in the near future. Although the comments failed to overcome US Dollar strength.

As for this week, Traders and investors, will mainly focus on the US Non-Farm payroll number due to be released on Friday showing an additional 180K new jobs. The CPI numbers from Germany and Europe will be the biggest catalyst behind Euro’s next move. A lower than expected number may add downside pressure on the pair as it will weigh on ECB’s decision for another rate hike.

On the economic calendar, we have on Wednesday, German Harmonized index of consumer prices pointing lower at 6.9% On Thursday, European Harmonized index of consumer prices expected lower at 6.3%, US ADP employment expected negative at -22K and US ISM manufacturing PMI lower at 47. On Friday Non-farm payroll expected to show an additional 180K new jobs.

Technically the picture is negative after last week’s break below 38.2% and close just above (50%). In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the downside will test 1.0625 (61.8%) A break and close below 1.0625 (61.8%) will accelerate losses and open the road for 1.0500.If pair resumes upside it will test 1.0815 (38.2%) before attempts to go higher at 1.0930 (23.6%)  Our traders are long at 1.0715 targeting profits above 1.1000 We are expecting more aggressive buyers at 1.0620 and  short sellers to appear above 1.0923 (23.6%)

GBP/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL

Pair closed last week’s trading session lower on FED’s hawkish comments for another rate hike in June. The economic releases from both sides came out better than expected and that kept pair marginally lower as demand for both currencies was balanced, the higher than expected inflation release in the UK added pressure on BOE to continue hiking rates although the US Dollar demand was higher and kept the pair lower.

As for this week, traders and investors will focus on the US non-farm payroll due to be released on Friday.  The lack of any economic releases from the UK will keep the pair trading in the mercy of the US Dollar.

On the economic calendar we have on Thursday, the US ADP employment with negative expectation of -27K jobs and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI also lower at 47. On Friday, US non-farm payroll expect to show 180K new jobs added during the month of May.

Technically the pair is neutral after last week’s close below (23.6%) As for this week if pair resumes on the upside will need to break and close above 23.6% in order to re-test 1.2650 Alternative if trades on the downside, will retest 1.2200 (38.2%) Short sellers are standing between 1.2200 – 1.2400 targeting profits at 1.2000 we are expecting more aggressive short sellers on the way up and new buyers to appear around 1.2200 targeting profits above 1.2500

For more detailed economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on: 

http://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/

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