Week Ahead May 15 – 19
EUR/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL
Pair closed last week’s trading session lower on demand of safe heaven US dollar as fears of a new banking crisis renew last week after another US bank has file a reduction of 10% in its deposits. ECBs officials’ comments started to treat water whether the central bank will continue increasing interest rates and that push many investors out of Euro. Another reason behind last week’s downside move was a technical correction after 2 months of range.
As for this week, Traders and investors, will mainly focus on the economic releases from both sides. As far as there will be not any central banks’ officials’ speeches, traders and investors will be trading mostly in a technical session.
On the economic calendar, we have on Thursday, European Gross domestic product to remain unchanged at 1.3% and US retail sales higher at 0% On Wednesday, European Harmonized index of consumer prices expected to remain unchanged at 5.6%
Technically the picture is neutral after last week’s close below 23.6%. In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the downside will test 1.0800 (38.2%) A break below 1.0800 will change the picture to negative and open the road for 1.0733 If resumes upside and breaks and close above 1.0925 (23.6%) will retest 1.1070 Our traders took profit all short positions and sitting on the side. We are expecting new short sellers to appear above 1.0923 and new buyers to appear at 1.0800 (38.2%)
GBP/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL
Pair closed last week’s trading session lower after BOE increased rates by 0.25% as it was widely expected. The press release after the meeting disappointed investors as BOE governor Bailey failed to convince investors and traders whether will be another increase in interest rates in the future. The downside move was also due to higher demand on safe heaven US dollar as fears of another banking crisis spread between investors after a US bank file that its deposits dropped by 10%.
As for this week, traders and investors will focus on BOE’s governor’s Bailey speech on Wednesday. The economic calendar from both sides and the technical levels will be the catalyst behind any direction of the pair.
On the economic calendar we have on Monday BOE monetary policy report. On Tuesday, UK claimant count expected to show a reduction on unemployment claims by 10.8K with the ILO unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 3.8% US retail sales expected higher at 0%. On Friday, Gfk consumer confidence expected lower at -33
Technically the pair is still positive even after a sharp downside move taken as technical correction. As for this week if pair resumes on the upside could re-test 1.2650 Alternative if continues on the downside, will retest Aprils lows at 1.2350 (23%) if breaks below 23.6% will open the road for 38.2% Many short sellers taken profit their short positions but still few are standing between 1.2200 – 1.2400 targeting profits at 1.2000 we are expecting more aggressive short sellers on the way up and new buyers to appear around 1.2200 targeting profits above 1.2500
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