Week Ahead March 25 – 29
EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on fears that ECB will cut rates as soon as in June meeting. FED maintained interest rates unchanged as it was expected, although, the minutes and the dovish press conference that followed, signal two rate cuts in 2024. The initial reaction, pushed the pair higher, although following the rest of the weak and the dovish comments from Germany’s central bank Bundesbank brought the pair lower.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the economic calendar and the speeches from few FED officials. We are expecting traders to per-position with short positions ahead of next ECB dovish monetary policy meeting and this could drive the pair farther on the downside.
On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, the US durable goods orders pointing higher at 1.3% On Thursday, German retail sales lower at -0.9% and US gross domestic product unchanged at 3.2% On Friday, US core personal consumption expenditures to remain unchanged at 2.8%
Technically the picture turns negative after last week’s close below (50%) at 1.0808 In this week’s trading session if pair trades on the downside will test 1.0762 (38.2%) a break and close below this level will open the road for 1.0700 If trades on the upside will retest 1.0866 and if breaks and closes above (50%) will open the road for 1.0960 Our traders open new long positions at 1.0863 and 1.0803 targeting profits at 1.0900 We are expecting more aggressive long positions below 1.0760 and new short positions above 1.0900
GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on dovish BOE meeting. Even though the central bank, maintained interest rates unchanged as it was expected, the voting of MPs to cut rates and the dovish comments from BOE’s governor Bailey, added selloff pressure on the pair. The minutes and the press conference that followed send a strong signal in the markets that the central bank will cut rates, possibly as soon as at the next meeting, as they do not need to wait for inflation to drop at 2%.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the economic calendar and technical levels. Few speeches from FED and BOE officials are due to take place during the week, although, we do not expect any significant impact or change in their language. We are expecting pair to remain within same range for long as now both central banks are on the same path regarding their interest rate policy.
On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, the US durable goods orders pointing higher at 1.3% On Thursday, UK Gross domestic product pointing lower at -0.3% and US gross domestic product unchanged at 3.2% On Friday, US core personal consumption expenditures to remain unchanged at 2.8%
Technically the pair’s overall picture turns neutral after last week’s close just above (50%) at 1.2600 As for this week, if pair trades on the upside, will retest 1.2715 (61.8%) Alternative, if trades on the downside, will retest 1.2530 Our traders took profit all their short positions and now turn long at 1.2600 targeting profits at 1.2800 We are expecting more aggressive long positions on the way down and new short sellers above 1.2700 targeting profits at 1.2600
For more detailed economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on:
https://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/
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