Weekly Market Outlook: USD/JPY Eyes 159.44, Gold Targets 4,500, WTI Eyes 100.06, Bitcoin Targets 86,131 & NVIDIA Eyes 242.30 — What’s Next This Week? 

Da-Costa Assumang • September 21, 2026
 
Da-Costa Assumang

Introduction

Last week delivered mixed market moves, with USD/JPY gaining 253 pips (+1.64%), Gold rising $79 (+1.83%), Bitcoin climbing 3.52%, and NVIDIA advancing 5.36%. As we enter 21–25 September 2026, traders will focus on key economic data, central-bank expectations and geopolitical risks that could shape the next major moves across Forex, metals, energy, crypto and stocks. 

Previous Week’s Market Recap

Forex: USD/JPY was the strongest major pair, rising from around 154.36 to 156.89, gaining approximately 253 pips (+1.64%) as the Fed delivered a 25bps rate hike and the BOJ also raised rates to 1.25%. EUR/USD was the weakest pair, falling from around 1.1550 to 1.1486, losing about 64 pips (-0.55%), while GBP/USD declined from around 1.3500 to 1.3392, pressured by broad U.S. dollar strength.

Metals: Gold was the strongest major precious metal, recovering from around $4,309.90 to $4,388.92, gaining approximately $79 (+1.83%) or 790 pips, as easing oil prices reduced some inflation concerns toward the end of the week. Palladium also recovered, rising from around $1,288 to $1,310, while the broader precious-metals complex finished higher.

Energy: Oil markets remained highly volatile. WTI moved from around $101.89 to $100.30, while Brent fell from around $107.77 to $103.87 after initially jumping on Saudi supply-disruption concerns. Easing fears around Saudi exports and possible restoration of pipeline capacity helped prices retreat toward the end of the week.

Crypto: BNB/USD was the strongest major cryptocurrency, rising from around $720.43 to $761.25, gaining approximately $40.82 (+5.66%). BTC/USD also recovered strongly, climbing from around $78,169 to $80,920, a gain of roughly $2,751 (+3.52%), after falling toward $75,000 following the Fed decision before rebounding above $80,000 on Friday.

Stocks: NVIDIA (NVDA) was the strongest among the selected major stocks, rising from around $210.96 to $222.27, gaining approximately $11.31 (+5.36%), supported by continued AI-related demand. META was comparatively weaker, moving from around $665.60 to $665.75, ending the week almost unchanged despite significant daily volatility.

Indices: Major indices delivered mixed results. The Nasdaq Composite was the strongest major U.S. index, gaining about 0.7% for the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was the weakest, falling around 1.7%. Meanwhile, the Nikkei 225 rebounded from 63,492.99 to 65,018.95, gaining approximately 1,526 points (+2.40%) as Japanese equities recovered toward the end of the week.

Important Events This Week:

FOREX : USDJPY 

Forex markets will be driven by Fed rate-hike expectations and multiple Fed speeches, global Flash PMIs on Wednesday 23rd at 13:45 GMT, SNB’s rate decision on Thursday 24th at 07:30 GMT, US jobless claims at 12:30 GMT and US Durable Goods plus Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday 25th, meanwhile, USD/JPY may remain volatile amid BOJ intervention concerns, while Middle East tensions, oil prices and US-China talks could add further volatility. 

USDJPY

USD/JPY is testing key support around 156.61. A break and hold above 158.02 could support a BUY toward 159.44, with SL 156.61 and RR around 1:1.0. A rejection from 158.02 could trigger a SELL toward 154.33, with SL 159.44 and RR around 1:2.6. A break below 156.61 would strengthen the bearish outlook toward 154.33. Always apply risk management. 

METALS : XAUUSD ( GOLD )

Gold will be mainly driven by Fed officials’ comments and rate expectations, US Flash PMI on Wednesday 23rd at 13:45 GMT, US New Home Sales on Thursday 24th at 14:00 GMT and US Durable Goods Orders plus Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday 25th at 14:00 GMT and 15:00 GMT. Traders will also watch the US dollar, Treasury yields, oil prices and Middle East tensions, with stronger yields/dollar potentially weighing on Gold while weaker yields or renewed safe-haven demand could support it. 

Gold (XAU/USD) is testing key support around 4,374. A break and hold above 4,445 could support a BUY toward 4,500, with SL 4,374 and RR around 1:1.8. A rejection from 4,445 could trigger a SELL toward 4,178, with SL 4,500 and RR around 1:3.9. A break below 4,374 would strengthen the bearish outlook toward 4,178. Always apply risk management. 

ENERGY : USOIL 

USOIL will be driven mainly by Middle East supply risks, OPEC+ output, US crude inventories, and global demand, with Strait of Hormuz disruptions and US-Iran tensions likely to keep volatility elevated. 

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is testing key support around 93.44. A break and hold above 96.62 could support a BUY toward 100.06, with SL 93.44 and RR around 1:1.1. A rejection from 96.62 could trigger a SELL toward 85.27, with SL 98.49 and RR around 1:6.1. A break below 93.44 would strengthen the bearish outlook toward 85.27. Always apply risk management. 

CRYPTO : BTCUSD ( BITCOIN )

Bitcoin will be influenced by Fed rate expectations and speeches, US PMI data on 23rd, jobless claims on 24th, and Durable Goods & Michigan Sentiment on 25th, alongside USD/liquidity, risk sentiment, regulation, ETF flows and the BTC quarterly options expiry on 25th. 

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is testing key support around 80,606. A break and hold above 82,027 could support a BUY toward 86,131, with SL 80,606 and RR around 1:2.7. A rejection from 82,027 could trigger a SELL toward 79,491 with SL 82,027 and RR around 1:1.8. A break below 80,606 would strengthen the bearish outlook toward 79,491 and potentially 78,707. Always apply risk management. 

STOCKS : NVIDIA 

NVIDIA’s price will be influenced by AI-chip demand, the $12.9B Hugging Face deal, US tech-market sentiment, Fed rate expectations, Treasury yields and broader Nasdaq moves, while investors continue assessing NVIDIA’s strong AI growth outlook. 

NVIDIA (NVDA) is testing key support around 215.32. A break and hold above 222.26 could support a BUY toward 242.30, with SL 215.32 and RR around 1:2.9. A rejection from 222.26 could trigger a SELL toward 209.87, with SL 226.00 and RR around 1:3.3. A break below 215.32 would strengthen the bearish outlook toward 209.87 and potentially 206.04. Always apply risk management.