WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK : GOLD Hits $4,378 , Oil Gains 4–5% , Bitcoin Falls to $62,875 & CADJPY Surges 1.59% — What’s Next This Week? 

Da-Costa Assumang • August 17, 2026
 
Da-Costa Assumang

Introduction

Global financial markets ended last week with mixed performance as investors balanced softer U.S. economic data, shifting central-bank expectations, geopolitical risks and strong equity momentum.

In forex, CADJPY led gains with a 1.59% (+179.3 pips) advance, while NZDCAD fell 0.72% (-59.2 pips). Gold climbed around 0.8% to close near $4,378/oz, silver held around $64 and crude oil gained roughly 4–5%, with USOIL near $81–$82 and UKOIL around $87–$88. Bitcoin, however, retreated from approximately $65,000 to $62,875, while U.S. stocks remained relatively strong, with the S&P 500 up about 0.4% and the Nasdaq gaining 0.1%, despite the Dow falling 0.6%.

Looking ahead, markets will focus on UK inflation and the U.S. FOMC Minutes on August 19, with UK inflation forecast at 2.9%, while traders assess the possibility of a September Fed rate move. Key levels will also remain in focus: GBPUSD 1.35576, XAUUSD 4,332.56, USOIL 81.23, BTCUSD 62,175, and S&P 500 7,810–8,175, which could determine whether bullish momentum continues or markets enter a deeper correction. 

Previous Week’s Important Events and Impact: 

Forex: CADJPY was last week’s strongest pair, rising 1.59% (+179.3 pips), supported by strong Canadian employment data, unemployment falling to 6.4%, firmer crude prices, and lower expectations of a Fed rate hike. Meanwhile, NZDCAD was the weakest, declining 0.72% (-59.2 pips) as weaker New Zealand inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven USD demand.

Commodities: Gold remained above $4,350/oz, while silver held near $64/oz, supported by softer U.S. data and reduced Fed rate-hike expectations. Brent crude traded around $83–$89/barrel, driven by Middle East tensions and concerns over supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

Crypto: Bitcoin weakened from around $65,000 to $62,875, reflecting concerns over U.S. regulatory delays, economic growth and weaker institutional inflows. AKEDO (AKE) surged more than 91%, while LAB fell nearly 20%, making it one of the biggest losers.

Stocks & Indices: U.S. equities ended the week mixed, with the S&P 500 gaining around 1.01% in one measure and 0.4% on the broader weekly index reading, while the Nasdaq rose 0.1% to extend its winning streak to three weeks. The Dow Jones slipped 0.6%, pressured by weak July retail sales, softer consumer sentiment and higher oil prices. Among individual stocks, Broadcom (AVGO) dropped nearly 6% on August 14, while AMD and SanDisk posted gains. 

Important Events This Week:

FOREX : GBPUSD

UK Inflation Rate and US FOMC Minutes: This week, the forex market will focus on two key events: UK Inflation Rate data on Wednesday, 19 August at 6:00 AM GMT, with a forecast of 2.9%, following June’s decline to 2.6%, mainly due to easing transport and fuel costs and US FOMC Minutes at 6:00 PM GMT, which could provide further clues on a potential September rate hike after three Fed officials supported a 25-basis-point increase in July.  

GBP/USD is testing key resistance at 1.35576. A break and retest above this level could support a BUY toward 1.37327, with SL 1.34965 and RR around 1:2.7. A rejection could trigger a SELL toward 1.34488, with SL 1.35800 and RR around 1:2.7. A break below 1.34965 would strengthen the bearish outlook toward 1.33819. 

METALS : XAUUSD ( GOLD )

Gold climbed around 0.8% last week to close near $4,378/oz, after reaching about $4,448 before easing on profit-taking. Gains were supported by softer U.S. inflation, reduced rate-hike bets, and persistent Middle East tensions.

Gold (XAUUSD) price rice remains bullish above the rising trendline and 4,332.56 support. Bullish scenario: Buy above 4,332.56, SL 4,266.45, TP 4,523.47, RR ≈ 1:2.9. Bearish scenario: Sell below 4,332.56, SL 4,380.00, TP 4,214.55, RR ≈ 1:2.5; a deeper move could target 4,141.65. 

ENERGY : USOIL & UKOIL

Crude oil gained around 4–5% for the week, despite a late 2% pullback, with USOIL near $81–$82 and UKOIL around $87–$88. Prices were supported by Strait of Hormuz tensions and stalled U.S.–Iran diplomacy, while a 17.4M-barrel U.S. inventory build and weaker global demand forecasts limited further gains. 

USOIL price remains bullish above the rising trendline and 81.23 support. Bullish scenario: Buy above 82.45, SL 81.23, TP 85.38, RR = 1:2.4. Bearish scenario: Sell below 81.23, SL 82.45, TP 78.66, RR = 1:2.0.

CRYPTO : BTCUSD ( BITCOIN )

The crypto market faced broad selling pressure last week , with Bitcoin retreating toward $62,875, Ethereum remaining below $1,900 and Solana holding around the mid-$70s. The decline reflected profit-taking, uncertainty over delayed U.S. crypto regulations and investor rotation into stocks and AI-related assets. 

BTC/USD 4H remains bearish-to-neutral, with 62,175 as key support and 63,375 as major resistance. Bullish setup: BUY at 62,250, SL 62,050, TP 63,375, RR 1:5.6 only after bullish rejection from support. Bearish setup: SELL at 62,100 after a confirmed break below 62,175, SL 62,400, TP 60,193, RR 1:6.4. 

STOCKS & INDICES : S&P 500 Index

Last week , U.S. equities extended their winning streak for a third consecutive week, although prices weakened toward the close. The S&P 500 climbed 0.4% to fresh record levels, while the Nasdaq posted a modest gain and the Dow slipped 0.6%. Softer inflation figures and upbeat corporate results supported sentiment, while disappointing retail sales and higher crude oil prices limited further gains. 

SPX 4H remains strongly bullish above the rising trendline, with BUY at 7,810, SL 7,700, TP 8,175, RR 1:3.3 if bullish momentum holds, while a confirmed break below 7,458.53 could offer a SELL at 7,440, SL 7,520, TP 7,210, RR 1:2.9; alternatively, a strong rejection near 8,175 could provide a SELL at 8,150, SL 8,220, TP 7,458, RR 1:9.9.