Week Ahead July 1st – 5th

EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session marginally lower higher after another choppy trading session. Looks like investors and traders are focusing on French election results and stronger economic catalysts before they jump into new positions. The pair stuck around 1.07 for third week in a row searching for direction.

As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the US non-farm payrolls and CPI number from Europe. European CPI expected lower at 2.8% A lower than expected CPI number could accelerate losses on pair as will add pressure on ECB to cut interest rates earlier. A higher print will accelerate gains as will eliminate any odds of interest rate cut for the next few meetings at least. US nonfarm payroll is due to be released on Friday and expectation are for 180K new jobs. Attention should be paid on ECB’s President Lagarde speech on Monday and Tuesday after the European CPI release, and FED’s Chairman Powell speech on Tuesday. On Wednesday FOMC minutes will be released and investors will gather information regarding when the interest rate reduction will take place on the next month’s meeting.

On the economic calendar we have on Monday, German Harmonized index of consumer prices pointing at 2.6% and US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 49 On Tuesday, European Harmonized index of consumer prices expected at 2.5% On Wednesday, US ADP employment expected at 170K and US ISM services PMI at 52.5 On Friday, European retail sales expected at 0.2% US average hourly earnings at 0.3% and nonfarm payroll at 180K

Technically the picture is negative after last week’s close below (38.2%) at 1.0711 In this week’s trading session if pair trades on the upside will test 1.0764 If trades on the downside will test 1.0604 Our traders stay with long positions at 1.0764 targeting profits at 1.0900 we are expecting more aggressive long positions on the way down and short position above 1.0865

GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session unchanged as investors and traders are waiting for parliamentary elections results in the UK. The pair overall picture is muted as investors and traders are looking for stronger economic catalysts that will affect interest rates decision and will give to the pair new direction.

As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the US non-farm payrolls due to be released on Friday and expectation are for 180K new jobs. Attention should be paid on FED’s Chairman Powell speech on Tuesday. On Wednesday FOMC minutes will be released and investors will gather information regarding when the interest rate reduction will take place on the next month’s meeting. From the GBP side the parliamentary elections result could generate some volatility.

On the economic calendar we have on Monday, US ISM Manufacturing PMI pointing at 49 On Wednesday, US ADP employment expected at 170K and US ISM services PMI at 52.5 On Friday, US average hourly earnings at 0.3% and nonfarm payroll at 180K

Technically the pair’s overall picture is neutral after last week’s close below (61.8%) at 1.2642 As for this week, if pair trades on the upside, will test 1.2870 Alternative, if trades on the downside, will test 1.2586 (50%) Our traders are standing with short positions at 1.2800 and 1.2720 targeting profits at 1.2600 we are expecting more aggressive short positions on the way up and new long positions below 1.2600

For more detailed economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on: 

https://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/

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