Week Ahead January 29 – February 2
EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on increasing demand for US Dollar as investors and traders are moving from equity markets to safe heaven US Dollar after the recent decline in Chinese economy and the sharp slide in Chinese stock market. Fears that the Chinese decline will spread in Europe and US is keeping investors on high alert and cautious in opening new positions. ECB kept interest rates unchanged as it was widely expected and kept their future monetary unchanged. Economic indicators in the US came out better than expectations. With all the above-mentioned factors the pair remains vulnerable on the downside.
As for this week, traders and investors will be focus on FOMC minutes and interest rate decision due to be released on Wednesday. The central bank is not going to change the interest rate and the policy at this meeting. Although the press conference and the future policy will guide investors on when the FED is going to start reducing interest rates. Volatile week ahead, heavy economic calendar from both sides, with the main economic release the US Non-farm payrolls.
On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, German Gross domestic product pointing lower at -0.3% European gross domestic product lower at -0.1% On Wednesday, German retail sales lower at -2.4% German Harmonized index of consumer prices lower at 3.4% and US ADP employment expected to show 135K new jobs. On Thursday, European Harmonized index of consumer prices lower at 3.2% and US ISM manufacturing PMI lower at 47.3 On Friday, US non-farm payroll expected to add 173K new jobs with the average hourly earnings stable at 4.1%
Technically the picture turns neutral after last week’s close below (50%) at 1.0852 In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the downside will test 1.0763 (38.2%) If resumes on the upside it will retest 1.0960 (61.8%) Our traders still long at 1.0861 targeting profits at 1.1100 We are expecting more aggressive long positions on the way down and new short positions at 1.1100
GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session unchanged on positive economic releases from both side the US and the UK. The recent decline in Chinese economy and the sharp slide in Chinese stock market, adding fears that will spread in Europe and US and is keeping investors on high alert and cautious in opening new positions.
As for this week, traders and investors will focus on both central banks’ meetings. On the US side, FOMC minutes and interest rate decision due to be released on Wednesday. On the UK side, BOE due to release their rate decision and policy on Thursday. Both central banks are not going to change their interest rate and policy at this meeting. Although the press conferences regarding future policy will guide investors on when the central banks are going to start reducing interest rates.
On the economic calendar we have on Wednesday, the US ADP employment with expectations to show 135K new jobs. On Thursday, US ISM manufacturing PMI expected lower at 47.3 On Friday, US non-farm payroll expected to add 173K new jobs with the average hourly earnings stable at 4.1%
Technically the pair’s overall picture is positive after last week’s close just below (61.8%) at 1.2701 As for this week, if pair continues on the upside, a break and close above (61.8%) will accelerate gains and open the road for 1.3126 Alternative, if resumes on the downside, will retest 1.2596 (50%) Our traders stay with short positions at 1.2723 targeting profits at 1.2500. We are expecting more aggressive short sellers above 1.2900 targeting profits at 1.2500 and long positions at 1.2460 targeting profits at 1.2825
For more detailed economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on:
https://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/
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