Week Ahead March 6th – 10th
EUR/USD FUNDAMENTOS E TÉCNICOS
Pair closed last week’s trading session higher on hawkish comments from ECB’s officials. Both officials in their speeches highlighted that the central bank will increase interest rates up to 4%. With a rate hike of 0.5% on the next meeting if inflation still persist higher. The mixed economic releases from the US was a negative factor behind last week’s US Dollars selloff.
As for this week, Traders and investors, will mainly focus on the non-farm payroll in the US. The forecast for last month payroll is pointing to negative. If this will be confirmed it will have negative impact on US Dollar as it will be the first negative non-farm payroll since the 2019 pandemic. The heavy economic calendar from both sides the EU and the US will create a turbulence trading session. FED’s chairman Powell is due to testify and is worth listening to what he has to say regarding central bank’s future path on interest rates.
On the economic calendar, we have on Monday the European retail sales pointing higher at 1.9% On Wednesday, German retail sales expected higher at 2%, European gross domestic product to remain unchanged at 1.9% US ADP employment expected higher at 168K. On Friday German harmonized index of consumer prices to remain unchanged at 9.3%. US non-farm payrolls expected at -35K and US Michigan consumer sentiment at 67.
Technically the picture is neutral after last week’s recover and closed above 61.8%. In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the upside and breaks above 50% could change the picture to positive and re-test 1.0765 Alternatively, if pair resumes downside we are expecting to re-test 1.0500 Our traders are net long with buyers standing between 1.0870 and 1.0600 targeting profits around 1.1000. We are expecting more aggressive buyers on the way down and short sellers to appear above 1.0800.
GBP/USD FUNDAMENTOS E TÉCNICOS
Pair closed last week’s trading session higher on norther Ireland protocol deal achieved between UK’s Shunak and EU’s Ursula. Although the upside was limited as ow the hard part is expected to take place. The new NI protocol need to be voted and accepted by UK parliament in two weeks’ time when Scotland’s government will response to the protocol’s terms. The mixed economic releases from the US and the hawkish BOE’s MPs comments was an additional factor behind GBP’s upside move. BOE’s officials are expecting another 0.5% rate hike in the next meeting.
As for this week traders and investors will focus on the US non-farm payroll number, for the first time since the 2019 pandemic the non-farm payroll expected to be negative. In others the GBP will continue into a choppy trading session as comments from many parliament members on the NI protocol will continue to come out before the voting. FED’s chairman Powell is due to testify during next week and investors and traders will need to follow speeches in order to gather information on what’s next on FED’s future path on interest rates.
On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, BRC Like-for-Like retail sales pointing at 3.9% On Wednesday, US ADP employment expected to add 168K new jobs On Friday, UK gross domestic product expected at 0%, UK Manufacturing Production expected at 0.3%, US Non-farm payroll expected at -35k and US Michigan consumer sentiment at 67.
Technically the pair is positive after last week’s recover and closed above 38.2% level. As for this week if pair continues on the upside could retest 23.6%. Alternative if resumes the downside, and breaks below 50% will open the road to 61.8% Buyers are standing firm between 1.2060 and 1.1950 targeting profits above 1.2200 We are expecting more aggressive buyers on the way down. New short sellers could appear at 1.2200 targeting profits at 1.2000
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