Week ahead September 5th – 9th
FUNDAMENTAL DAN TEKNIKAL EUR/USD
Pair closed last week’s trading session lower on deepening European energy crisis. While the G7 gathered together to discuss a cap on Russian oil price, Russia has already permanently closed the supply of gas via its Nord stream pipe. Its more obvious now that any sanctions on Russia are weighing negative on European economy and the signs of a recession becoming stronger. The gas crisis weighted negative on the pair after its attempt to normalize on Jackson Hole symposium comments, where ECB officials agreed that the central bank should take more aggressive rate hike decisions. From the US Dollar side the better than expected non-farm payroll number show that the US economy is still far from any recession. Although the non-farm payroll did not generate huge volatility as the FED’ s dashboard is mainly focus on the inflation.
As for this week all eyes will be on the ECB rate hike decision and press conference. Traders are expecting a rate hike of 0.5% at this meeting. If the ECB really wants to stabilize the free fall of it currency, the rate hike should be at 0.75%. If this will happen the pair has increasing chances to recover and continues to trade above parity. Fail to deliver a satisfactory rate hike will result into additional downside pressure on the pair. In others the energy crisis in Europe will become a headache for EU leaders to relief with more diplomatic solutions rather than sanctions on a product that they cannot produce and cannot live without it.
On the economic calendar we have on Monday, European retail sales pointing at -0.7% On Tuesday, US ISM services lower at 54.9 On Wednesday, European gross domestic to remain unchanged at 3.9% On Thursday ECB to hike rates by 0.5%
Technically the picture is negative after last week’s closed just above 0% The pair is still trading within a downtrend channel formation. In this week’s trading session if pair fails to resume upside move and turns down, and breaks below 0% will accelerate losses down to 0.9900 and beyond. If pair manage to recover and close above (23.6%) could change the picture back to neutral and test next level of 1.0370 (38.2%). Our traders are net 100% long with positions opened between 1.1350 to 1.0000 targeting profits above 1.1350 we are expecting more aggressive long positions on the way down. Alternative if pair continues trading on the upside, we are expecting short sellers to appear around 1.0370 (38.2%)
FUNDAMENTAL DAN TEKNIKAL GBP/USD
Pair closed last week’s trading session lower on continuing US Dollar’s strength. The better than expected non-farm payroll and economic releases from the US weighted negative on the pair. The continuing energy crisis in the EU id directly affecting the UK that already faces very high inflation and high risks of recession.
As for this week the light economic calendar in the UK will let the pair once again in the mercy of it counter party US Dollar. A speech from BOE’s policymaker Catherine Mann will be closely monitored for any signs of a more aggressive policy from the central bank.
On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, BRC Like-for-Like retail sales to remain unchanged at 1.6% On Tuesday US ISM services lower at 54.9 On Wednesday, BOE will release its monetary policy report.
Technically the pair is negative after last week’s close on new multi year lows. the pair continues to trade within a downside channel formation. In this week’s trading session if pair manages to resume on the upside, we are expecting to retest 1.1700 Alternatively if pair continues on the downside will bring the pair into new lows of 1.1400 Our traders are net long 100% with positions opened between 1.2250 to 1.1600 targeting profits above 1.2250 We are expecting more aggressive buyers on the way down and short sellers to appear around 1.1950
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