Week ahead September 5th – 9th

欧元/美元的基本面和技术面

Pair closed last week’s trading session lower on deepening  European energy crisis. While the G7 gathered together to discuss a cap on Russian oil price, Russia has already permanently closed the supply of gas via its Nord stream pipe. Its more obvious now that any sanctions on Russia are weighing negative on  European economy and the signs of a recession becoming stronger. The gas crisis weighted negative on the pair after its attempt to normalize on Jackson Hole symposium comments, where ECB officials agreed  that the central bank should take more aggressive rate hike decisions. From the US Dollar side the better than expected non-farm payroll number show that the US economy is still far from any recession. Although the non-farm payroll did not generate huge volatility as the FED’ s dashboard is mainly focus on the inflation.

至于本周，所有的目光将集中在欧洲央行的加息决定和新闻发布会上。交易员们预计本次会议将加息0.5%。如果欧洲央行真的想稳定其货币的自由下跌，加息应该是在0.75%。如果这将发生，该货币对有越来越多的机会恢复并继续在平价之上交易。如果不能实现令人满意的加息，将导致货币对的额外下行压力。在其他方面，欧洲的能源危机将成为欧盟领导人的头疼问题，他们需要用更多的外交解决方案来缓解，而不是对一个他们不能生产也不能没有的产品进行制裁。

在经济日历上，我们有周一，欧洲零售销售指向-0.7%周二，美国ISM服务业降低至54.9周三，欧洲国内生产总值保持不变，为3.9%周四，欧洲央行将加息0.5%。

Technically the picture is negative after last week’s closed just above 0% The pair is still trading within  a downtrend channel  formation. In this week’s trading session if pair fails to resume upside move and turns down, and breaks below 0% will accelerate losses down to 0.9900 and beyond. If pair manage to recover and close above (23.6%) could change the picture back to neutral and test next level of 1.0370 (38.2%). Our traders are net 100% long with positions opened between 1.1350 to 1.0000 targeting profits above 1.1350 we are expecting more aggressive long positions on the way down. Alternative if pair continues trading on the upside, we are expecting short sellers to appear around 1.0370 (38.2%)

英镑/美元的基本面和技术面

Pair closed last week’s trading session lower on continuing US Dollar’s strength. The better than expected non-farm payroll and economic releases from the US weighted negative on the pair. The continuing energy crisis in the EU id directly affecting the UK that already faces very high inflation and high risks of recession.

As for this week the light economic calendar in the UK will let the pair once again in the mercy of it counter party US Dollar. A speech from BOE’s policymaker Catherine Mann will be closely monitored for any signs of a more aggressive policy from the central bank.

在经济日历上，我们有周二，BRC同类零售销售保持不变，为1.6%周二美国ISM服务业降低，为54.9周三，英国央行将发布货币政策报告。

Technically the pair is negative after last week’s close on new multi year lows.  the pair continues to trade within a downside channel formation. In this week’s trading session if pair manages to resume on the upside, we are expecting to retest 1.1700 Alternatively if pair continues on the downside will bring the pair into new lows of 1.1400  Our traders are net long 100% with positions opened between 1.2250 to 1.1600 targeting profits above 1.2250 We are expecting more aggressive buyers on the way down and short sellers to appear around 1.1950

更详细的经济日历事件，请访问我们的实时经济日历。 

http://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/

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