Week Ahead February 6th – 10th
FUNDAMENTAL DAN TEKNIKAL EUR/USD
Pair closed last week’s trading session lower after an impressive rally triggered on central banks’ minutes. The FED surprised traders with a 0.25% interest rate hike. The 0.25% less than expected and the comments that the central bank reached it pick have put US Dollar under pressure and pair traded sharp higher. On the other side, ECB increased rates by 0.5% as it was widely expected, although the comments that followed fueled rally as the central bank is willing to continue hiking rates. The party didn’t last long, the pair retreated sharp on the downside as non-farm payroll came out much better than expected and triggered a new demand in US Dollar.
As for this week Traders and investors will mainly focus on FED’s chairman speech and the technical indicators. The light economic calendar from both sides will not generate high volatility. Although the non-farm payroll from last week could fueled more demand for US Dollar and pair will continue on the downside.
On the economic calendar, we have on Monday the European retail sales pointing at -2.7%. on Thursday German Harmonized index of consumer prices expected higher at 10% and on Friday the US Michigan consumer sentiment expected at 65.9
Technically the picture is neutral after last week’s downside move and close just above 38.2%. In this week’s trading session if pair resumes the upside and breaks above 23.6% could accelerate gains and re-test 1.1000 Alternatively, if pair continues on the downside and breaks below 38.2% we are expecting to test 1.0700 (50%). Our traders even in positions as many short sellers took profit their short positions and new buyers appeared at 1.0870 and 1.0800 targeting profits around 1.1000. We are expecting more aggressive buyers on the down and short sellers to appear above 1.0900.
FUNDAMENTAL DAN TEKNIKAL GBP/USD
Pair closed last week’s trading session firm lower after BOE dovish comments. The central bank increased rates by 0.5% as it was widely expected, although, the dovish comments that the UK economy will be in recession, pushed traders and investors into selloff in GBP positions. The recession fears have been confirmed by the IMF last week and this generated a new wave of selloff. Apart from central banks and IMF the deteriorated UK economic releases and the better than expected US non-farm payroll was the top of the cake that push the pair even lower.
As for this week traders and investors will focus on FED’s chairman speech, and the light economic releases. The technical levels will be a good pivot to follow for fat entries and exits. Although we believe that the non-farm payroll impact will dominate the week ahead and pair may face more selling pressure.
On the economic calendar we have on Monday few BOE officials’ speeches. On Tuesday, BRC Like-for-Like retail sales expected lower at -1.4%. On Friday, UK gross domestic product expected at 0%, UK manufacturing production lower at -0.2% and US Michigan consumer sentiment at 64.9%
Technically the pair is negative after the sharp downtrend and closed below 38.2% . As for this week if pair resumes the upside could retest 23.6%. Alternative if continues on the downside, will test 50% A break below 50% could accelerate losses and open the road for 1.1800. Our short sellers took profit all their positions and new buyers appeared at 1.2060 targeting profits above 1.2200 We are expecting more aggressive buyers on the way down. New short sellers could appear at 1.2200 targeting profits at 1.2000
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