Weekly Market Outlook: 26th – 30th October 2026

Da-Costa Assumang • October 27, 2026
 
Da-Costa Assumang


The financial markets enter the week of 26–30 October 2026 following a mixed performance, with gold falling 4.1% to around $4,010, WTI crude rising approximately 2% to $103.44, and the Nasdaq declining 0.71%. This week, traders will focus on key interest rate decisions from New Zealand, Canada, the U.S., Europe and Japan, alongside U.S. GDP, inflation data, major technology earnings and oil inventory figures. These events could drive volatility across forex, gold, oil, Bitcoin and NVIDIA, making disciplined risk management essential. 

Previous Week’s Market Recap

Weekly market overview infographic summarising forex, gold, oil, Bitcoin, stocks and indices, with key price changes and market drivers.

Forex:

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) edged lower by approximately 0.09%, closing around 101.75. The Australian and Canadian dollars outperformed major currencies, while the euro lagged. Markets reacted to changing interest-rate expectations, rising inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions.

Metals:

Gold experienced significant selling pressure, declining approximately 4.1% to around $4,010 per ounce, after trading near $4,187 earlier in the week. Stronger Treasury yields and profit-taking contributed to the decline, with prices briefly falling below $4,000 on Friday.

Energy:

Oil prices climbed amid heightened Middle East supply concerns. WTI crude rose approximately 2.0% over the week, closing near $103.44 per barrel, while Brent crude increased approximately 1.6% to around $111.66 per barrel. Geopolitical risks supported prices despite broader market uncertainty.

Crypto:

Bitcoin struggled to maintain upward momentum, ending the week around $81,330, with a slight decline of approximately 0.06%. Prices fluctuated as investors responded to uncertainty in technology stocks, changing risk appetite and broader market volatility.

Stocks:

U.S. stocks delivered mixed results as concerns over artificial intelligence spending and technology valuations weighed on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 declined approximately 0.47%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.71%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained approximately 0.41%, and the Russell 2000 advanced 2.0%.

Indices:

U.S. indices experienced a volatile week, with technology stocks leading Thursday’s sell-off. The Nasdaq Composite closed near 25,955.34, while the S&P 500 finished around 7,623.68. The Dow Jones closed at approximately 52,215.16, supported by relatively stronger performance outside major technology stocks. Rising oil prices and inflation concerns remained key market drivers.

Important Events This Week:

FOREX : USDJPY , USDCAD , EURUSD , NZDUSD

New Zealand on Wednesday, 28 October, at 1:00 AM GMT (forecast: 3%), Canada at 1:45 PM GMT (2.50%) and the United States at 6:00 PM GMT (4%). On Thursday, 29 October, the European Union announces its rate at 1:15 PM GMT (forecast: 2.65%), followed by Japan on Friday, 30 October (forecast: below 1.25%). 

EURUSD

EUR/USD four-hour chart showing a downtrend, support near 1.11789, resistance at 1.12813 and potential bullish and bearish targets.

EURUSD is trading around 1.11818, testing key support near 1.11789 within a broader downtrend. A rebound above 1.12813 could support a BUY toward 1.13616 and 1.14181, with SL at 1.11789 and RR around 1:0.8 to the first target. A rejection from 1.12813 could trigger a SELL toward 1.08831, with SL at 1.12813 and RR around 1:3.9. A break below 1.11789 would strengthen the bearish outlook toward 1.08831.

Always apply risk management.

METALS : XAUUSD ( GOLD )

XAU/USD will be driven by the Federal Reserve rate decision on Wednesday, 28 October, with rates expected to remain at 3.75%–4.00%, followed by U.S. Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation data on Thursday, 29 October. Strong inflation, rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar could pressure gold, while softer data and a weaker dollar may support recovery. Oil prices and geopolitical tensions will also influence safe-haven demand. Gold is trading near $4,012/oz, with key resistance at $4,110 and support around $4,000 and $3,895. 

Gold daily chart showing support near 3,971.61, upside levels at 4,148.48 and 4,264.30, and a downside target at 3,574.91.

XAU/USD (Gold) is testing key support around 3,971.614. A rebound above 4,148.483 could support a BUY toward 4,264.300, with SL at 3,971.614 and RR around 1:0.7. A rejection from 4,148.483 could trigger a SELL toward 3,574.909, with SL at 4,000.953 and RR around 1:2.9. A confirmed break below 3,971.614 would strengthen the bearish outlook toward 3,574.909.

Always apply risk management.

ENERGY : USOIL 

USOIL will be driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions, U.S. crude inventory data and global supply risks. WTI closed near $103.27 per barrel on 23 October, up approximately 2% for the week, while Brent reached $116.72, up around 6%, amid attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. The key event is the EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday, 28 October, another stock draw could support prices, while an unexpected build may trigger selling. Continued disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could push oil higher, while easing tensions and recovering supply could pull prices lower. 

WTI crude oil four-hour chart showing potential upside toward 111.01 and downside levels at 98.68 and 96.18.

USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) is testing key support around 101.85. A rebound above 101.85 could support a BUY toward 111.01, with SL at 98.68 and RR around 1:2.9. A rejection from 101.85 could trigger a SELL toward 98.68, with SL at 106.71 and RR around 1:0.7. A break below 98.68 would strengthen the bearish outlook toward 96.18.

Always apply risk management.

CRYPTO : BTCUSD ( BITCOIN )

Bitcoin and the crypto market will be driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision on Wednesday, 28 October, with rates expected to remain at 3.75%–4.00%, followed by U.S. Q3 GDP growth forecast at 3.2% and September PCE inflation on Thursday, 29 October. Bitcoin is struggling around $80,000, with recent lows near $79,100. Higher inflation, hawkish Fed comments and reduced crypto ETF inflows could pressure prices, while softer data, a weaker dollar and stronger institutional inflows may support recovery. 

Bitcoin four-hour chart showing rising trendline support, an upside target near 82,827 and downside levels near 78,469 and 77,950.

BTCUSD is testing key support around 79,113, near the ascending trendline. A rebound above 79,827 could support a BUY toward 82,827, with SL at 79,113 and RR around 1:4.2. A rejection from 79,827 could trigger a SELL toward 78,469, 77,950 and potentially 77,375, with SL at 82,827 and RR around 1:0.5 to 1:0.8. A decisive break below 78,469 would strengthen the bearish outlook toward 77,950, 77,375 and 76,799.

Always apply risk management.

STOCKS : NVIDIA 

NVIDIA (NVDA) and U.S. stocks will be influenced by the Federal Reserve rate decision on Wednesday, 28 October, followed by U.S. Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation data on Thursday, 29 October. Microsoft and Alphabet earnings on Wednesday, and Amazon earnings on Thursday, will test whether heavy AI investments are generating sufficient returns. With hyperscaler capital spending estimated at $800 billion in 2026, strong earnings and AI demand could support NVIDIA and technology stocks, while weak guidance, high Treasury yields or hawkish Fed signals could trigger further selling. Intel and Sandisk earnings will also influence semiconductor sentiment 

NVIDIA four-hour chart showing rising trendline support near 209.30, an upside target at 229.85 and potential downside targets.

NVDA is testing key support around 214.59, with the ascending trendline providing additional support near 209.30. A rebound above 214.59 could support a BUY toward 229.85, with SL at 209.30 and RR around 1:2.5. A rejection from 214.59 could trigger a SELL toward 209.30 and 205.15, with SL at 229.85 and RR around 1:0.4 to 1:0.7. A decisive break below 209.30 would strengthen the bearish outlook toward 205.15, 202.24 and potentially 199.33.

Always apply risk management.