Week Ahead October 16 – 20

EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on upbeat US CPI release. The higher than expected CPI release in the US, fueled expectations for another 0.25% interest rate increase in the coming FED meeting. While the Euro area CPI stabilized this added more downside pressure on pair as it is waived chances for another interest rate increase from ECB. Another factor behind US Dollar demand is the geopolitical turmoil in the middle east pushing investors into safe heaven US Dollar.

As for this week traders and investors will be focus on the meetings between the UN and Israel for ceasefire. If a solution will be found and deescalate the geopolitical turmoil pair may resume upside and recover some lost ground. ECB’s and FED’s officials’ speeches during the week will guide investors through the future monetary policy from both central banks.

On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, European ZEW economic sentiment pointing at -8 and US retail sales pointing lower at 0.2% On Wednesday, European Harmonized index of consumer prices to remain unchanged at 4.5%

Technically the picture is negative after last week’s close at 1.0500 In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the downside and break below (0%) level could accelerate losses and test 1.0400 If resumes on the upside and break and close above 1.0652 (23.6%) will change the picture back to neutral and could open the road for 1.0763 (38.2%) Our traders opened new long positions at 1.0530 targeting profits above 1.0900 we are expecting more aggressive buyers at 1.0450

GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on upbeat US CPI release. The higher than expected CPI release in the US, fueled expectations for another 0.25% interest rate increase in the coming FED meeting. The lack of any high impact economic events from the UK, let the pair trade on the mercy of US Dollar.

As for this week traders and investors will mostly focus on the heavy economic calendar from the UK especially the CPI release in the UK. A higher than expected release will help the pair recover lost ground as it will fueled expectation for another interest rate hike. Speeches from FED’s and BOE’s officials will be closely monitor as will guide investors on what the future monetary policy could be.

On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, the UK ILO unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3% and US retail sales lower at 0.2% On Wednesday, UK consumer price index expected lower at 6.5% On Friday, UK Gfk consumer confidence expected at -21 UK retail sales stable at 0.4%

Technically the pair is negative after last week’s close at 1.2135 As for this week, if pair resumes on the upside, will need to break and close above 23.6% to change the picture back to neutral. Alternative, if continues on the downside, and breaks below 1.2100 will open the road for 1.2000 Our traders are long at 1.2150 targeting profits above 1.2700. We are expecting more aggressive long positions at 1.2100

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