Week Ahead March 4 – 8
EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session marginally higher on mixed economic releases from both sides the US and the EU. From the US, the higher than expected PCE was over shadowed by the dovish comments from FED’s officials, and triggered a selloff in USD dollar and helped the pair to push higher, which later balanced as the European CPI came out softer than expected and added on the odds of sooner interest rates cut in the EU. From the US the worse than expected durable goods orders and ISM manufacturing weighted negative on US Dollar.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the ECB rate decision and press conference and the US Non-farm payrolls. ECB is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged although the press conference will guide investors and trader on the next steps that the central bank is expected to follow. US Non-farm payroll expected to show another 200K new jobs ae added. FED officials, including FED’ chairman Powell, are due to speak during the week.
On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, the US ISM services PMI pointing lower. On Wednesday, European retail sales expected higher by 0.1% and US ADP employment at 150K On Friday, European Gross domestic product to remain unchanged, US average hourly earnings lower at 4.4% and non-farm payroll at 200K
Technically the picture remains neutral after last week’s close above (38.2%) at 1.0840 In this week’s trading session if pair trades on the downside will test 1.0700 If trades on the upside it will retest 1.0858 (50%) Our traders are still long at 1.0861 and 1.0762 targeting profits at 1.1100 We are expecting more aggressive long positions on the way down and new short positions at 1.1100
GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session marginally lower on mixed economic releases from the US. The higher than expected PCE triggered higher demand on US Dollar and pushed the pair lower, which later was over shadowed by the dovish comments from FED’s officials, and triggered a selloff in USD dollar and helped the pair to push higher, and balance losses. The worse than expected US durable goods orders and ISM manufacturing weighted negative on US Dollar.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the US Non-farm payrolls. US Non-farm payroll expected to show another 200K new jobs ae added. FED officials, including FED’ chairman Powell, are due to speak during the week. The lack of any economic releases from the UK will let once again the pair in the mercy of US Dollar.
On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, the US ISM services PMI pointing lower. On Wednesday, US ADP employment at 150K On Friday, US average hourly earnings lower at 4.4% and non-farm payroll at 200K
Technically the pair’s overall picture is positive after last week’s close above (50%) at 1.2655 As for this week, if pair trades on the upside, will test 1.2723 A break and close above (61.8%) will accelerate gains and open the road for 1.3126 Alternative, if trades on the downside, will retest 1.2531 Our traders stay with short positions at 1.2723 targeting profits at 1.2500. We are expecting more aggressive short sellers above 1.2900 targeting profits at 1.2500 and long positions at 1.2460 targeting profits at 1.2825
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