Week Ahead April 17th – 21st

欧元/美元的基本面和技术面

Pair closed last week’s trading session higher on worse than expected  US economic releases and on hawkish ECB’s officials comments. The softer than expected US CPI weighed negative on FED future rate hike expectations. On the other side two members of the ECB highlighted that 0.25% -0.5% rate hike will take place in May’s meeting. All the above mentioned have boosted pair higher and retested levels seen ten months ago. By the end of the week we have seen traders and investors taking profits out of their long positions and in combination with the better than expected US Michigan consumer sentiment brought the pair down to its break out level.

As for this week, Traders and investors, will mainly focus on the speech from ECB’s Christine Lagarde. The speech could confirm last week’s comments and reinforce rate hike expectation, something that will add traction to the pair. In the rest of the week traders and investors will continue trade the economic releases unless something unexpected happens.

On the economic calendar, we have on Tuesday, the European Economic sentiment pointing higher at 19.8 On Wednesday, European core Harmonized index of consumer prices to remain unchanged at 5.7% On Thursday European consumer confidence pointing lower at -19.3 On Friday German composite PMI expected to remain unchanged at 52.6 Manufacturing PMI lower at 44.5 European composite PMI unchanged at 53.7 and US Manufacturing PMI lower at 48.7

Technically the picture is positive after last week’s close above 23.6%. and an attempt to break out of January’s peak. In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the upside will re-test  1.1070 peak of January. If breaks and close above 1.1070 will open the road for 1.1200 Alternatively, if pair resumes downside we are expecting to re-test 1.0800 Our traders have entered into short positions as of 1.0900 to 1.1030 targeting profits at 1.0700 We are expecting more aggressive short sellers on the way up and new buyers to appear at 1.0800 (38.2%)

英镑/美元的基本面和技术面

Pair closed last week’s trading session unchanged on disappointing economic releases from both sides. The US CPI erased any expectations for another rate hike. The worse than expected US economic releases have added downside pressure on the US Dollar and the pair benefits from a new rally on higher levels of the year. Although the rally halted by the end of the week and the pair retreated back to last week’s level as traders have taken some profits out of the table after the US Michigan consumer confidence came out better than expectations.

As for this week, traders and investors will focus on the speeches form BOE’s officials. The heavy UK economic calendar will defy the pairs next direction. The main catalyst for GBP will be the CPI number due to be released on Wednesday. A softer than expected number will bring the pair sharp on the downside as it will add pressure on BOE to stop hiking rates.

On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday the UK Claimant count with expectation that more than 11.8K people have enter the unemployment benefit. On Wednesday, UK consumer Price index expected lower at 10% retail price index lower at 9.8% On Friday, Gfk consumer confidence lower at -37, retail sales lower at -4.5% and Services PMI to remain unchanged at 52.9

Technically the pair is positive after last week’s close above 23.6% level. And an attempt to break higher than the week before. As for this week if pair continues on the upside and break above last week’s peak of 1.2560 could open the road for 1.2650 Alternative if resumes the downside, and breaks below 23.6% will retest 38.2% Short sellers are standing between 1.2200 – 1.2520 targeting profits at 1.2000 we are expecting more aggressive short sellers on the way up and new buyers to appear around 1.2064 targeting profits above 1.2200

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http://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/

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