Week Ahead April 10th – 14th
Pair closed last week’s trading session unchanged as the trading activity was reduced due to Easter holidays. The main catalyst for any price action was the US non-farm payroll and unemployment rate. Both of them came out on line as it was expected and failed to generate any volatility.
As for this week, Traders and investors, will mainly focus on the CPI release from the US a catalyst that is highlighted on FED’s dashboard. A lower outcome will eliminate any future rate hike expectations and will add selling pressure on US Dollar. Few FED’s officials are due to deliver their speech during the week and is worth following them as they may give some guidance on their future monetary stance.
On the economic calendar, we have on Tuesday, the European Retail sales pointing lower at -3.5% On Wednesday, US Consumer price index expected higher at 5.6% and later the FOMC minutes will be release. No rate hike is expected at this meeting. On Thursday, German Harmonized index of consumer prices expected to remain the same at 7.8% On Friday, US retail sales to remain the same at -0.4% and US Michigan consumer sentiment higher at 62.7
Technically the picture is positive after last week’s close above 23.6%. In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the upside and breaks above last week’s peak of 1.0970 could accelerate gains and re-test 1.1033 peak of January. Alternatively, if pair resumes downside we are expecting to re-test 1.0700 Our traders have entered into short positions as of 1.0900 targeting profits at 1.0700 We are expecting more aggressive short sellers on the way up and new buyers to appear at 1.0700 (50%)
Pair closed last week’s trading session unchanged on mixed economic releases form both sides. The low trading volume due to Easter holidays kept the pair hovering around same levels. The US non farm payroll came out on line with expectations and failed to generate any significant volatility.
As for this week traders and investors will focus on US CPI number and the speeches from both central banks’ officials. The main catalyst that could generate volatility and change the pair’s direction is a worse than expected US CPI that could trigger selloff in US Dollar as it will erase any rate hike expectations. The FOMC release is not expected to have any impact as no rate hike is expected at this meeting.
On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday the UK BRC Like-for-Like retail sales expected to be the same at 4.9% On Wednesday, US Consumer price index expected higher at 5.5% On Thursday, UK Gross domestic product expected lower at 0.2% On Friday, US retail sales to remain the same at -0.4% and US Michigan consumer sentiment higher at 62.7
Technically the pair is positive after last week’s close above 23.6% level. As for this week if pair continues on the upside and break above last week’s peak of 1.2520 could open the road for 1.2600 Alternative if resumes the downside, and breaks below 23.6% will retest 38.2% Short sellers are standing between 1.2200 – 1.2520 targeting profits at 1.2000 we are expecting more aggressive short sellers on the way up and new buyers to appear around 1.2064 targeting profits above 1.2200
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