Week Ahead February 6th – 10th
FONDAMENTALI E TECNICI DELL'EUR/USD
Pair closed last week’s trading session lower after an impressive rally triggered on central banks’ minutes. The FED surprised traders with a 0.25% interest rate hike. The 0.25% less than expected and the comments that the central bank reached it pick have put US Dollar under pressure and pair traded sharp higher. On the other side, ECB increased rates by 0.5% as it was widely expected, although the comments that followed fueled rally as the central bank is willing to continue hiking rates. The party didn’t last long, the pair retreated sharp on the downside as non-farm payroll came out much better than expected and triggered a new demand in US Dollar.
As for this week Traders and investors will mainly focus on FED’s chairman speech and the technical indicators. The light economic calendar from both sides will not generate high volatility. Although the non-farm payroll from last week could fueled more demand for US Dollar and pair will continue on the downside.
Sul calendario economico, lunedì le vendite al dettaglio in Europa puntano a -2,7%. Giovedì l'indice armonizzato tedesco dei prezzi al consumo è atteso in rialzo a 10% e venerdì il sentimento dei consumatori del Michigan negli USA è atteso a 65,9.
Technically the picture is neutral after last week’s downside move and close just above 38.2%. In this week’s trading session if pair resumes the upside and breaks above 23.6% could accelerate gains and re-test 1.1000 Alternatively, if pair continues on the downside and breaks below 38.2% we are expecting to test 1.0700 (50%). Our traders even in positions as many short sellers took profit their short positions and new buyers appeared at 1.0870 and 1.0800 targeting profits around 1.1000. We are expecting more aggressive buyers on the down and short sellers to appear above 1.0900.
FONDAMENTALI E TECNICI DI GBP/USD
Pair closed last week’s trading session firm lower after BOE dovish comments. The central bank increased rates by 0.5% as it was widely expected, although, the dovish comments that the UK economy will be in recession, pushed traders and investors into selloff in GBP positions. The recession fears have been confirmed by the IMF last week and this generated a new wave of selloff. Apart from central banks and IMF the deteriorated UK economic releases and the better than expected US non-farm payroll was the top of the cake that push the pair even lower.
As for this week traders and investors will focus on FED’s chairman speech, and the light economic releases. The technical levels will be a good pivot to follow for fat entries and exits. Although we believe that the non-farm payroll impact will dominate the week ahead and pair may face more selling pressure.
On the economic calendar we have on Monday few BOE officials’ speeches. On Tuesday, BRC Like-for-Like retail sales expected lower at -1.4%. On Friday, UK gross domestic product expected at 0%, UK manufacturing production lower at -0.2% and US Michigan consumer sentiment at 64.9%
Tecnicamente la coppia è negativa dopo il forte ribasso e ha chiuso sotto 38.2%. Per quanto riguarda questa settimana, se la coppia riprende il rialzo potrebbe ritestare 23.6%. In alternativa, se continua il ribasso, testerà 50% Una rottura al di sotto di 50% potrebbe accelerare le perdite e aprire la strada per 1,1800. I nostri venditori allo scoperto hanno preso profitto su tutte le loro posizioni e nuovi acquirenti sono apparsi a 1,2060 puntando a profitti superiori a 1,2200 Ci aspettiamo acquirenti più aggressivi sulla via del ribasso. Nuovi venditori allo scoperto potrebbero apparire a 1,2200 con l'obiettivo di ottenere profitti a 1,2000.
Per un calendario economico più dettagliato, visitate il nostro calendario economico in tempo reale su:
https://10tradefx.com/economic-calendar/
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