Week Ahead December 12th – 16th
FUNDAMENTAL DAN TEKNIKAL EUR/USD
Pair closed last week’s trading session marginally higher on widening divergence between the two central banks. ECB officials on the one side are signalling more rates ahead. On the other side FED is signalling softer rate ahead. Last week’s better than expected economic releases in the US failed to give traction on the US Dollar and kept the pair hovering around monthly higher levels as traders and investors are siting on the side and waiting for this week’s rate decisions.
All traders and investors will be standby for this week’s high impact events highlighting the end for 2022, battle against inflation. The FED is due to release its monetary policy and rate decision on Wednesday. The central bank expected to hike rates by 0.25%, something that is already priced-in the pair’s exchange rate and if confirmed it will clearly signal that the FED is willing to stop hiking rates, that will result to triggering stronger selloff in US Dollar. ECB is due to release their monetary policy and rate decision on Thursday. The central bank expected to hike rates by 0.5% signalling stronger rates increases ahead in their fight against inflation.
Pada kalender ekonomi, pada hari Selasa, indeks harga konsumen Jerman yang diselaraskan menunjukkan angka 11,3 tidak berubah dari sebelumnya. Sentimen Ekonomi Eropa diperkirakan lebih rendah pada -67,2 dan indeks harga konsumen AS lebih tinggi pada 6,4%. Pada hari Rabu, notulen FOMC akan dirilis dengan ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga sebesar 0,25%. Pada hari Kamis, ECB diperkirakan akan menaikkan suku bunga sebesar 0.5% dan penjualan ritel AS diperkirakan lebih rendah pada 0.3%. Pada hari Jumat, PMI manufaktur Jerman diperkirakan lebih tinggi pada 46,7 PMI komposit Eropa lebih tinggi pada 48 dan PMI jasa AS tidak berubah pada 46,2
Technically the picture is positive after last week’s close firm above 61.8% In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the upside could accelerate gains to full recovery of 100% 1.0750 Alternatively, if pair resumes the downside we are expecting to retest 1.0300 (61.8%). Our traders are short at 1.0500 targeting profits at 1.0300 we are expecting more aggressive sellers above 1.0600 Alternative if pair retreats on the downside we are expecting new buyers at 1.0300 targeting profits at 1.0600
FUNDAMENTAL DAN TEKNIKAL GBP/USD
Pair closed last week’s trading session marginally lower after both GBP and US Dollar lost their traction for more gains. The better than expected US economic releases failed to fuel the US Dollar as traders and investors are looking into stocks for Santa rally. Both GBP and US Dollar traders stay on the side as they are bracing for the week ahead and the rate decision from both central banks.
As for this week market participants will focus on both central bank’s rate decision. The FED is signalling softer rate hikes ahead as the BOE is failing to give any future signals regarding rate hikes. The FED expected to raise rates by 0.25% on Wednesday’s FOMC. The BOE expected to raise rates by 0.5% on Thursday’s meeting. Traders and investors will be standby ahead of both meetings. The busy economic calendar of this week will generate huge volatility.
Pada kalender ekonomi, kami memiliki hari Senin, Produk Domestik Bruto Inggris menunjukkan angka negatif tetapi lebih baik dari yang terakhir di -0.1% Produksi manufaktur Inggris lebih rendah di -0.1% Pada hari Selasa, tingkat pengangguran ILO stabil di 3.6% Indeks harga konsumen Amerika Serikat lebih tinggi di 6.4% Pada hari Rabu, indeks harga konsumen Inggris diperkirakan lebih tinggi di 11.5%. Pada hari Kamis, penjualan ritel AS diperkirakan lebih rendah di 0.3% Pada hari Jumat, penjualan ritel Inggris diperkirakan lebih rendah di -0.2% IMP jasa Inggris lebih tinggi di 49.2 dan IMP jasa AS tidak berubah di 46.2
Technically the pair is positive as the pair closed just below 100% and hovering around higher levels. In this week’s trading session if pair manages to continue on the upside, will keep the overall picture positive and could open the road to more recovery up to 1.2500 Alternatively a reversal on the downside could retest 1.1200 (61.8%) Short sellers are standing firm between 1.1600 and 1.2300 targeting profits around 1.1738 we are expecting new buyers around 1.1200 targeting profits above 1.2300 The pair is sitting into an overbought territory and needs extra caution as a sharp downside correction could be around the corner.
Untuk acara kalender ekonomi yang lebih terperinci, silakan kunjungi kalender ekonomi langsung kami di:
https://10tradefx.com/economic-calendar/
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