Week Ahead September 30 – October 4
EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on US Dollar strength and Euro’s decline. The US Dollar gather some strength last week as economic indicators came out better than expected, confirming that the US Economy is still flourishing. The better than expected economic releases from the US reduce odds of aggressive rate cut on next FED meeting. Even though, Fed officials continue to orchestrate their dovish stance and signalling for another 0.5% rate cut in November, the economic indicators suggesting only another 0.25% rate cut. On the European side the lower print of CPI boosted odds for another 0.25% rate cut on next ECB meeting.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the US nonfarm payrolls and European CPI numbers. The lower the CPI in Europe and Germany, will add downside pressure on Euro, as traders will start prepositioning ahead of next ECB meeting. The Better than expected nonfarm payroll will boost US Dollar. Both the above, will result is downside move during the next week for the pair. FED’s Officials are due to continue giving their speech during the week and is good to listen what they have to say.
On the economic calendar we have on Monday, German CPI pointing lower at 1.9% On Tuesday, European CPI expected lower at 2% and US ISM manufacturing PMI steady at 47.2 On Wednesday, US ADP employment to add 110K new jobs On Thursday, US ISM Services PMI unchanged at 51.5 On Friday, Nonfarm payrolls to add 145K new jobs and average Hourly Earnings pointing lower at 3.3
Technically the picture is positive after last week’s close higher and just below (0%) at 1.1188 In this week’s trading session if pair trades on the upside will test 1.1235 If trades on the downside will test 1.1058 (23.6%) Our traders are keeping open their short positions starting from 1.0870 to 1.1186 targeting profits at 1.0800 We are expecting more aggressive short positions on the way up and new long positions at 1.1000 Given the failure of the pair to break higher last 2 weeks, this may be the formation of a double top and the point where the pair is ready for reversal.
GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session higher overshadowing the deteriorated UK economic releases and US Dollar strength. The unusual upside moves in the pair and the already two week’s trading sessions in overbought territory is adding doubts between traders and investors. When uncertainty surrounds a pair’s price the only result will be a sharp correction on the downside. The US Dollar gather some strength last week as economic indicators came out better than expected, confirming that the US Economy is still flourishing. The better than expected economic releases from the US reduce odds of aggressive rate cut on next FED meeting. Even though, Fed officials continue to orchestrate their dovish stance and signalling for another 0.5% rate cut in November, the economic indicators suggesting only 0.25% rate cut, and this could be the reason why GBP doesn’t give up its rally.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the US nonfarm payrolls. The Better than expected nonfarm payroll will boost US Dollar. FED’s and BOE’s Officials are due to continue giving their speech during the week and is good to listen what they have to say.
On the economic calendar we have on Monday, UK Gross domestic product to remain unchanged at 0.6% On Tuesday, US ISM manufacturing PMI steady at 47.2 On Wednesday, US ADP employment to add 110K new jobs On Thursday, US ISM Services PMI unchanged at 51.5 On Friday, Nonfarm payrolls to add 145K new jobs and average Hourly Earnings pointing lower at 3.3
Technically the pair’s overall picture is positive after last week’s close higher just below (0%) at 1.3371 As for this week, if pair trades on the upside, will test 1.3428 Alternative, if trades on the downside, will test 1.3252 (23.6%) Our traders keeping open their short positions starting from 1.2870 to 1.3428 targeting profits at 1.2800 We are expecting more aggressive short positions on the way up and new long positions starting at 1.3137
Pour un calendrier économique plus détaillé, veuillez consulter notre calendrier économique en direct sur :
https://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/
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