Week Ahead January 08 – 12
EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on deteriorating European economic releases and better than expected US economic releases. The non-farm payrolls in the US gave renew traction for US Dollar as the release beat expectations. From the European side, few comments from ECB’s officials signaled that the central bank could reduce interest rates in 2024 although the higher inflation number of last month’s contradicts this comment so the pair’s reaction was limited. FOMC minutes remain unchanged as it was widely expected.
As for this week, traders and investors will be focus on inflation number from the US. This is the strongest catalyst for now behind any FED decision on interest rates. The higher the print the higher the demand for US dollar will be. A softer print could trigger a temporary sell off for US Dollar and will push the pair on the upside.
On the economic calendar we have on Monday, the European retail sales pointing lower at -1.5% On Thursday US consumer price index expected lower at 3.8% On Friday, US producer price index lower at 1.9% and Michigan consumer sentiment expected at 69.7
Technically the picture is positive after last week’s close just below (61.8%) at 1.0940 In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the upside will re-test 1.1100 If resumes on the downside it will retest 1.0860 (50%) Our traders are short at 1.0966 and 1.1107 targeting profits at 1.0760 We are expecting more aggressive short positions on the way up and new long positions at 1.0860 (50%)
GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session unchanged after a choppy trading week. The lack of any economic releases from the UK let the pair on the mercy of it counter-party US Dollar. The pair was trading lower during the week as US economic releases beat expectations. Before closing on Friday pair recovered all lost ground as the US ISM manufacturing came out worse than expectations.
As for this week, traders and investors will be focus on the US inflation number and UK Gross domestic product. It will be a relatively calm week for the pair and we are expecting to see the same range. Although as the US CPI is the strongest catalyst behind FED’s rate decision, things can derail if their will be big deviation.
On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, the UK BRC Like-for-Like retail sales pointing at 2.6% On Thursday US consumer price index expected lower at 3.8% On Friday, UK gross domestic product expected lower at 0.2% and US producer price index lower at 1.9% and Michigan consumer sentiment expected at 69.7
Technically the pair’s overall picture is positive after last week’s close just on (61.8%) at 1.2716 As for this week, if pair continues on the upside, will accelerate gains and open the road for 1.3126 Alternative, if resumes on the downside, will retest 1.2596 (50%) Our traders stay with short positions at 1.2723 targeting profits at 1.2500. We are expecting more aggressive short sellers above 1.2900 targeting profits at 1.2500 and long positions at 1.2460 targeting profits at 1.2825
Pour un calendrier économique plus détaillé, veuillez consulter notre calendrier économique en direct sur :
https://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/
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