Week Ahead September 11 – 15
EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on US dollar’s strength after the US economic releases show improvement in market sentiment. Comments from many FED officials during the week did not offer much for investors and this kept the US dollar stronger ahead of the black week that no comments are allowed before the next rate decision. From the Euro side economic releases were mixed and this weighted negative on Euro.
As for this week traders and investors will be focus on the ECB rate decision. No interest rate change is expected although the press conference that will follow will guide investors on what will be the future policy path of ECB. US CPI releases will be the main catalyst that will weight on FED’s next rate decision.
On the economic calendar we have on Wednesday, the US CPI pointing higher by 0.5% On Thursday ECB rate decision to remain unchanged at 4.25% US retail sales lower at 0.2% On Friday, Michigan consumer sentiment to remain unchanged at 69.5%
Technically the picture is negative after last week’s lower close at 1.0700 In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the downside could test (100%) level. If resumes on the upside and break and close above 1.0883 (61.8%) will change the picture back to neutral and could open the road for 1.0967 (50%) Our traders are long between 1.1000 and 1.0770 targeting profits at 1.1270 We are expecting more aggressive buyers to appear below 1.0700 targeting profits above 1.1200 and sellers at 1.1036 targeting profits at 1.0700
GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on US Dollar’s strength. The better than expected economic releases in the US, boosted demand for US Dollar ahead of the black week where no comments are allowed before the next FED rate decision. The warning signals from some BOE officials regarding high interest rates, weighted negative on GBP and pushed the pair lower.
As for this week traders and investors will mostly focus on the economic releases from both sides with the most important one the US CPI. A deviation from current number will affect FED’s rate decision, due to be released next week. BOE’s MPs Pill and Mann are due to speak out this week. Their comment will generate some volatility for GBP.
On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday the UK BRC claimant count change and ILO unemployment rate pointing higher at 4.3% On Wednesday, the US CPI pointing higher by 0.5% On Thursday US retail sales lower at 0.2% On Friday, UK consumer inflation expectations are expected at 3.5% and US Michigan consumer sentiment to remain unchanged at 69.5%
Technically the pair is negative after last week’s close below (61.8%) at 1.2461 As for this week, if pair resumes on the upside, will need to break and close above 61.8% to change the picture back to neutral. Alternative, if continues on the downside, will test 1.2320 Our traders keeping their long positions at 1.2730 and 1.2623 targeting profits above 1.3000 We are expecting short sellers at 1.3140 targeting profits at 1.2750 and more aggressive buyers below 1.2461
For more detailed economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on:
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