Week Ahead December 19th – 23rd
EUR/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL
Pair closed last week’s trading session higher on ECB’s hawkish comments. The FED increased rates by 0.5% as it was widely expected and the pair did not react on the news and remained steady around same levels as during the weekly trading range. ECB also increased rates by 0.5% as it was widely expected, although the pair spiked higher registering new multi months higher level. This was the result of an unexpected hawkish comment during the speech of ECB’s president Christine Lagarde highlighting that the central bank will continues with another two rate hikes of 0.5% in the next meetings and not only.
As for this week All traders and investors will continue trading last week’s central bank’s releases. With no high impact events ahead and by entering the mood of Christmas holidays we are expecting markets to be calmer and mooted.
On the economic calendar, we have on Tuesday German IFO business climate pointing higher at 87.2 On Tuesday, German producer price index negative at -2.6% and European consumer confidence negative at -22.5 On Thursday, US gross domestic product to remain unchanged at 4.3% On Friday, US Durable goods orders expected lower at 0% and Michigan consumer sentiment unchanged at 59.1
Technically the picture is positive after last week’s close firm above higher and tested 100% In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the upside could retest 100% 1.0750 Alternatively, if pair resumes the downside we are expecting to retest 1.0300 (61.8%). Our traders are short between 1.0500 – 1.0650 targeting profits at 1.0300 we are expecting more aggressive sellers around 1.0700 Alternative if pair retreats on the downside we are expecting new buyers at 1.0300 targeting profits at 1.0600
GBP/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL
Pair closed last week’s trading session lower as traders and investors took some profits off the table due to BOE’s dovish stance. The central bank raised rates by 0.5% as it was widely expected. Although the voting of two PMs for keeping the rate unchanged was taken as dovish signal from investors and traders. It looks like the central bank is running out of steam and could stop hiking rates, if, more MPs will join the dovish club. On the other side the FED’s rate hike by 0.5% was also widely expected and priced in and failed to generate any volatility.
As for this week we are expecting investors and traders to continue to trade last week’s central banks’ releases. With the light economic calendar and the Christmas holidays ahead, trading will be calm. The lack of any high impact events will also be another reason for a mooted week ahead.
On the economic calendar we have on Thursday, UK Gross domestic product to remain unchanged at 2.4% and US gross domestic product also unchanged at 4.3% On Friday, US Durable goods orders expected lower at 0%
Technically the pair is positive even though it turned sharp on the downside after tested 100% level. As it was expected and we mentioned that on our last technical release, the pair was traded in an overbought territory and sharp reversal was expected. The pair closed above 61.8% and the technical is still positive. As for this week if pair resumes upside could retest 100% alternative a break below 61.8% could accelerate losses and change the overall picture to neutral. We are expecting buyers to appear at 1.2060 (61.8%) targeting profits around 1.200
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