Week Ahead September 25 – 29
EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on FED’s hawkish minutes. The central bank-maintained interest rates unchanged last Wednesday, although the minutes confirm that the FED will hike rates once again before the end of the year. The minutes fueled demand for US Dollar and pushed the pair lower. Before the end of the week, the better than expected European releases helped the pair stabilized around 1.0650
As for this week traders and investors will be focus on the FED’s chairman Powell speech due on Thursday and on the European CPI releases. Powell is expected to keep his position unchanged for another rate hike before the end of the year, something that is already priced in, at current exchange rate. The European CPI will give some clues for investors and traders for the next rate decision of ECB.
On the economic calendar we have on Thursday the German consumer price index pointing lower at 4.6% and US gross domestic product higher at 2.3% On Friday, German retail sales expected higher by 0.1% European core Harmonized index of consumer prices expected lower at 4.8% US core personal consumption expenditures lower at 3.9% and Michigan consumer sentiment unchanged at 67.7
Technically the picture is negative after last week’s lower close at 1.0661 In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the downside and break below (100%) level could accelerate losses and test 1.0500 If resumes on the upside and break and close above 1.0883 (61.8%) will change the picture back to neutral and could open the road for 1.0967 (50%) Our traders are long between 1.1000 and 1.0640 targeting profits at 1.1270 We are expecting many long position to be trigger stop losses if pair breaks and close below 1.0600
GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on FED’s hawkish minutes. The central bank-maintained interest rates unchanged last Wednesday, although the minutes confirm that the FED will hike rates once again before the end of the year. The minutes fueled demand for US Dollar and pushed the pair lower. BOE surprisingly maintained interest rates unchanged and trigger additional selloff in GBP that resulted into a sharp downside move in the pair.
As for this week traders and investors will mostly focus on FED’s Powell speech due on Thursday. Powell is expected to keep his position unchanged for another rate hike before the end of the year, something that is already priced in, at current exchange rate. As for the GBP side the light UK calendar will let the pair trade on the mercy of US Dollar’s economic releases.
On the economic calendar we have on Thursday, the US gross domestic product pointing higher at 2.3% On Friday, UK Gross domestic product to remain unchanged at 0.4% US core personal consumption expenditures lower at 3.9% and Michigan consumer sentiment unchanged at 67.7
Technically the pair is negative after last week’s close below (100%) at 1.2239 As for this week, if pair resumes on the upside, will need to break and close above 61.8% to change the picture back to neutral. Alternative, if continues on the downside, will test 1.2120 Our traders triggered their stop-losses to all their positions as the pair broke below 1.2320 The pair entered into oversold territory, we are expecting a correction on the upside in the coming trading sessions.
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