Week Ahead October 14th – 18th
EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on US Dollar strength as the FOMC minutes failed to clear the path for another 0.25% interest rate cut on their next meeting. US CPI came out higher than expectations pushing the pair lower. German Harmonized index of consumer prices came on line with expectations keeping traders on hold for next week’s ECB interest rate decision.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the ECB interest rate decision due to be released on Thursday. The central bank is expected to reduce interest rates by 0.25%. We do not expect a huge reaction from Euro traders as this was already priced in the pair. The press conference that will follow, will clear the central bank’s path on the future rate decisions and projections.
On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, the European ZEW Economic survey pointing higher at 16.9 On Thursday, European Harmonized index of consumer prices to remain unchanged at 2.7% and US Retail sales higher at 0.3%
Technically the picture is negative after last week’s downside move and close below (38.2%) at 1.0935 In this week’s trading session if pair trades on the upside will test 1.0980(38.2%) If trades on the downside will re-test 1.0900 (50%) Our traders’ positions are 50-50 with buyers and sellers between 1.0870 – 1.0970 We are expecting more new short positions on the way up and more aggressive long positions on the way down.
GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on US Dollar strength as the FOMC minutes failed to clear the path for another 0.25% interest rate cut on their next meeting. US CPI came out higher than expectations pushing the pair lower. UK Gross domestic product came on line with expectations, although, failed to find new buyers for the pair as traders and investors are standby for next week’s heavy economic calendar and BOE monetary policy report.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the UK CPI due to be released on Wednesday. A higher print will push the pair higher as it will add pressure on BOE to hold interest rate unchanged. A lower print will trigger a selloff in pair as trader and investors will pre-positioned ahead of next BOE interest rate decision.
On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, the UK Claimant change pointing lower at 20.2K and ILO Unemployment rate steady at 4.1% On Wednesday, UK CPI expected lower at 3.5% on Thursday, US retail sales expected at 0.3% On Friday, UK retail sales expected lower at -0.3%
Technically the pair’s overall picture is negative after last week’s downside move and close just on (50%) at 1.3063 As for this week, if pair trades on the upside, will test 1.3137 (38.2%) Alternative, if trades on the downside, will test 1.2958 (61.8%) Our traders are mixed 50-50 with long and short positions between 1.2870 – 1.3137. We are expecting more aggressive short positions on the way up and more aggressive long positions on the way down.
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https://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/
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