Week Ahead January 27th – 31st

EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session higher on Trump’s comments in Davos. US President Trump in his first week in the office brought back the so-called Trump trade in the financial markets. With his back and forward on Chinese and Europe tariffs, the US dollar lost buying interest from investors and drove the pair higher. In his speech in Davos Mr.  Trump highlighted another one time that the FED should cut interest rates farther, weakening the US dollar temporary, as FED’s Powel intervene and said that the FED is and will be independent. European economic indicators outperform expectations helping Euro gather some strength and closing the week in positive territory after many months of selloff.

As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on both Central banks’ meetings. The FED is due to release its interest rate decision on Wednesday. It is expected that FED will maintain interest rates unchanged at this meeting. The press conference that will follow and the interest rate projections for 2025 will guide investors and traders into their new positions. ECB is due to release its interest rate decision on Thursday. Is expected that ECB will cut interest rates by 0.25%. the press conference will follow giving investors some directions of the future monetary path of ECB.

On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, the US Durable goods orders pointing higher at 0.8% Thursday, the German Gross domestic product pointing lower at -0.1% European Gross domestic product lower at 0.1% and US Gross domestic product lower at 2.7% On Friday, German retail sales expected higher at 0% German consumer price index higher at 2.9% US core personal consumption expenditures higher at 0.2%

Technically the picture turn neutral after last week’s close above (38.2%) at 1.0500 In this week’s trading session if pair trades on the upside will test 1.0567 (50%) A break out and close above 1,0567 will change the picture to positive and open the road for 1.0651  If trades on the downside will test 1.0360 A break and close below 1.0360 will change the picture to negative and add downside pressure and test 1.0180 Our traders are net long with positions between 1.0767 – 1.0500 targeting profits above 1.1000 after taking profits on all their long positions below 1.0500  We are expecting new short positions above 1.0651 and more aggressive long positions on the way down.

GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session higher on Trump’s comments in Davos. US President Trump in his first week in the office brought back the so-called Trump trade in the financial markets. With his back and forward on Chinese and Europe tariffs, the US dollar lost buying interest from investors and drove the pair higher. In his speech in Davos Mr.  Trump highlighted another one time that the FED should cut interest rates farther, weakening the US dollar temporary, as FED’s Powel intervene and said that the FED is and will be independent. The lack of any high impact economic events in the UK and the lower than expected US Services PMI the pair recover some lost ground from last few months selloff.

As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on Wednesday’s FOMC. The FED is due to release its interest rate decision on Wednesday. It is expected that FED will maintain interest rates unchanged at this meeting. The press conference that will follow and the interest rate projections for 2025 will guide investors and traders into their new positions.

On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, the US Durable goods orders pointing higher at 0.8% Thursday, US Gross domestic product pointing lower at 2.7% On Friday, US core personal consumption expenditures higher at 0.2%

Technically the pair’s overall picture is neutral after last week’s close above 38.2% at 1.2480 As for this week, if pair trades on the upside, will test 1.2566 (50%) A break and close above 1.2566 will change the picture to positive and  will open the road for 1.2677 Alternative, if trades on the downside, will test 1.2319 (23.6%) A break and close below 1.2319 will open the road for 1.2100  Our traders are net long between 1.3038 and 1.2615 targeting profits above 1.3038 after the took some profits on the lower positions. We are expecting new short positions above 1.2677 and more aggressive long positions on the way down.

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