Week Ahead January 22 – 26
EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on ECB’s Laggard comments and better than expected US economic releases. The US inflation number came out higher for the month and this will affect any interest rate cut by the FED in the near future. From the US Dollar side, no rate cut meaning stronger dollar and this kept the pair lower for last week’s session. ECB’s Laggard avoid any comments on whether the central bank is willing to cut interest rates in 2024 although she said that is too early to discuss any interest rate reduction given the current persisting inflation in Euro-zone.
As for this week, traders and investors will be focus on ECB interest rate decision due to be released on Thursday. The central bank is not going to change their policy at this meeting. Although the press conference and the policy will guide investors on when the ECB is going to start reducing interest rates.
On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, German Services PMI pointing higher at 49.5 European services PMI also higher at 49 and US Services PMI lower at 51 On Thursday, US durable goods orders expected lower at 2% On Friday US personal consumption expenditures expected lower at 3%
Technically the picture is positive after last week’s close above (50%) at 1.0897 In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the upside will test 1.0960 (61.8%) If resumes on the downside it will retest 1.0860 (50%) Our traders took profit all their short positions and entered new long positions at 1.0861 targeting profits at 1.1100 We are expecting more aggressive long positions on the way down and new short positions at 1.1100
GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower after a choppy trading week. The UK inflation number came out higher than expectations and boost demand for GBP as it will add pressure on BOE to keep interest rates higher for longer. Short lived reaction for the upside move due to the US inflation that also came out higher than expectations and this waved any chances for interest rate reduction in the near future. The UK gross domestic product show some improvement for the UK economy although is failed to generate any demand for the GBP.
As for this week, traders and investors will be focus on the economic calendar releases from both sides, the US and the UK.
On the economic calendar we have on Wednesday, UK services PMI pointing higher at 53.5 and US Services PMI lower at 51 On Thursday, US durable goods orders expected lower at 2% On Friday, UK Gfk Consumer confidence expected lower at 24.3 and US personal consumption expenditures expected lower at 3%
Technically the pair’s overall picture is positive after last week’s close just below (61.8%) at 1.2701 As for this week, if pair continues on the upside, a break and close above (61.8%) will accelerate gains and open the road for 1.3126 Alternative, if resumes on the downside, will retest 1.2596 (50%) Our traders stay with short positions at 1.2723 targeting profits at 1.2500. We are expecting more aggressive short sellers above 1.2900 targeting profits at 1.2500 and long positions at 1.2460 targeting profits at 1.2825
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