February 17th – 21st
EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session firm higher on Trump’s tariff relief. The US president Trump has announced that will not add tariffs on all countries on all products instead will add tariffs only on countries that are charging tariffs on US products and the tariff will be balanced according to each counterpart country’s tariffs. This gave some relief on the uncertainty that was surrounding markets in the last two weeks and flows on US dollar return back to the equity markets as investors are more optimistic on now in equity markets and the impact of tariffs. The starting of peace negations between US and Russia is another catalyst behind last week’s US Dollar selloff as markets are starting to balance the geopolitical risks that were in priced in in the last 2 years.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the economic releases from both sides. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes is due to release the centrals bank’s last decision on US economy and the path on interest rates. No change is expected at this meeting, although, given the last high CPI release, the central bank may use a more hawkish language in this meeting and boost demand for US Dollar.
On the economic calendar we have on Wednesday, the US FOMC. On Friday, German services PMI expected at 52.5 European services PMI at 51.3 US Services PMI at 52.9
Technically the picture is neutral after last week’s close above (38.2%) at 1.0491 In this week’s trading session if pair trades on the upside will test 1.0560 (50%) A break out and close above 1,0560 will change the picture to positive and open the road for 1.0651 If trades on the downside will test 1.0359 A break and close below 1.0359 will add downside pressure and test 1.0173 Our traders took profit their long positions below 1.0464 and now are 100% net long with positions between 1.0767 – 1.0636 targeting profits above 1.1000 We are expecting new short positions above 1.0651 and new long positions at 1.0473 and 1.0359
GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session firm higher on Trump’s tariff relief. The US president Trump has announced that will not add tariffs on all countries on all products instead will add tariffs only on countries that are charging tariffs on US products and the tariff will be balanced according to each counterpart country’s tariffs. This gave some relief on the uncertainty that was surrounding markets in the last two weeks and flows on US dollar return back to the equity markets as investors are more optimistic on now in equity markets and the impact of tariffs. The starting of peace negations between US and Russia is another catalyst behind last week’s US Dollar selloff as markets are starting to balance the geopolitical risks that were in priced in in the last 2 years.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the economic releases from both sides. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes is due to release the centrals bank’s last decision on US economy and the path on interest rates. No change is expected at this meeting, although, given the last high CPI release, the central bank may use a more hawkish language in this meeting and boost demand for US Dollar. The UK CPI will be the strongest catalyst behind any price action this week as a higher print could affect BOE’s next interest rate decision.
On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, the UK ILO unemployment rate pointing higher at 4.5% On Wednesday, UK CPI pointing higher at 3.7% UK PPI higher at 0.2% and the US FOMC. On Friday, UK retail sales expected higher at 0.3% UK Services PMI at 50.9 and, US Services PMI at 52.9
Technically the pair’s overall picture is positive after last week’s close above 50% at 1.2586 As for this week, if pair trades on the upside, will test 1.2675 (61.8%) A break and close above 1.2675 will open the road for 1.2782 Alternative, if trades on the downside, will test 1.2567 (50%) A break and close below 1.2567 will open the road for 1.2461 Our traders took profit all their long positions below 1.2567 and now are 100% net long between 1.3038 and 1.2675 targeting profits above 1.3038 We are expecting new short positions above 1.2677 and new long positions at 1.2567 and 1.2461
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https://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/
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