Key US & German Data to Watch
Last week’s volatility across major currency pairs was driven by shifting Fed expectations, soft economic data, and mounting pressure in global equity markets – especially the ongoing selloff in A.I. stocks. With traders seeking clarity ahead of key speeches from Fed and ECB officials, both EURUSD and GBPUSD are positioned at crucial technical levels that could dictate the week ahead. In this article, we break down the core drivers behind last week’s moves and what traders should watch as the new trading week unfolds. Read on for the full technical and fundamental outlook.
EURUSD Outlook: Key US Economic Data, Fed Speeches, and Technical Levels to Watch
EURUSD closed last week’s trading session lower on a stronger US Dollar. The FOMC minutes reinforced expectations that there will be no rate cut in December, with many FED officials supporting this stance. The selloff in equity markets pushed many investors towards the safe-haven US Dollar, boosting demand and keeping the pair under pressure throughout the week. The US Nonfarm Payrolls report came in at 110K, which was higher than expected and further adding on odds of the FED holding rates unchanged rate.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on technical levels and speeches from FED and ECB officials. Equity markets will once again drive the US Dollar flows. Concerns over the A.I. bubble and the recent selloff in A.I. stocks need to settle before equity markets can stabalise and find clearer direction.
On the economic calendar, Tuesday will feature the US PPI, expected higher at 2.7%, and US retail sales at 0.4%. On Wednesday, US durable goods orders are expected to be lower at 0.2%. On Friday, German retail sales are forecasted to come in at 0.3% and the German Harmonised index of Consumer Prices lower at -0.2%
Technically, the pair is neutral after last week’s close above 50% at 1.1512. Traders long positions are targeting profits above 1.1700, while selling positions took profits at around 1.1500.
Position sentiment: BUY 90% – SELL 10%
GBPUSD Outlook: UK CPI, Fed Speeches, and US Dollar Flows to Watch
GBPUSD closed last week’s trading session lower following the release of the UK CPI. The lower print in CPI increased expectations for a rate cut at the next BOE meeting, pushing the GBP lower. The FOMC minutes signaled a likely hold on any rate cut in December, which many Fed officials supporting this. The selloff in equity markets pushed many investors towards the safe-haven US Dollar, boosting demand and keeping the pair on lower levels during last week’s trading session. The US Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 110K – higher than expectations – adding to forecasts that the Fed will keep interest rates stable.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on technical levels and speeches from Fed officials. Equity markets are expected to, once again, drive the US Dollar flow for this week. The situation concerning the A.I. bubble, which is causing a lot of fear in markets, and A.I. stock selloff needs to be calmed before equity markets are stabalised. With no major economic events happening in the UK, the GBP is expected to trade largely at the mercy of US Dollar sentiment.
GBPUSD Technical Outlook and Key US Economic Data to Watch This Week
On the economic calendar, Tuesday will bring with it the US PPI, which is expected to come in higher at 2.7% and US retail sales at 0.4%. On Wednesday, US durable goods orders are expected to come in lower at 0.2%.
Technically, the pair remains negative after last week’s close below the 61.8% level at 1.3.95. Long positions are still open between 1.3369 – 1.3100, targeting profits above 1.3500.
Position sentiment: BUY 85% – SELL 15%.
Key Takeaways
US Dollar strength dominated markets as equity selloffs pushed investors into safe-haven flows.
FOMC minutes reinforced expectations of no rate cut in December, supported by stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls.
EURUSD remains neutral, holding above key technical support near 1.1512 with sentiment skewed heavily toward buying.
GBPUSD turned negative after softer UK CPI increased the likelihood of a BOE rate cut.
This week’s focus shifts to US data (PPI, retail sales, durable goods) and speeches from Fed and ECB officials, while market stability hinges on easing A.I. sector fears.
For more detailed economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on:
https://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/
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