April 14th – 18th
EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session firm higher with an unprecedented performance not seen in the last 3 years. The pair trader higher on US Dollar selloff as markets are still pricing in the trade war between US and China. On top of trade war, the US Inflation came lower than expectation fuelled FED rate cut and weighted negative on US Dollar. US President Trump unexpected decision to halt tariffs for nighty days helped somehow equity markets and US Dollar, although the party was not long lasting and selloff resumed by the end of the week as investors and traders are always prepare for a new black Monday
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the US -China trade war. The picture could change at any time if US and China will sit on the table of negotiation and cancel or reduce tariffs. ECB is due to release their interest rate decision on Thursday. The central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25%. Given the tariffs from US, ECB could be cautious and hold and trigger a new rally in Euro. FED’s Powell is due to speak on Wednesday and is very important to hear what FED’s position will be during this uncertain period. Short week ahead with many markets closing for eastern holiday. Liquidity will be thin and in combination with market uncertainty could trigger huge price actions in forex markets.
On the economic calendar we have on Wednesday, European Harmonized index of consumer prices to remain unchanged at 2.4% and the US retail sales pointing higher at 1.3%
Technically the picture is positive after last week’s close above (100%) at 1.1356 In this week’s trading session if pair trades on the upside will re-test 1.1468 (0%) A break out and close above 1,1468 will open the road for 1.1568 If trades on the downside will test 1.1273 (23.6%) A break and close below 1.1273 will add downside pressure and test 1.1134 Our traders are net short positions between 1.1260 – 1.1468 targeting profits at 1.1150 if pair trades on the downside we are expecting take profits on short positions and new long positions starting at 1.1150
GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session higher on US Dollar selloff as markets are still pricing in the trade war between US and China. On top of trade war, the US Inflation came lower than expectation fueled FED rate cut and weighted negative on US Dollar. US President Trump unexpected decision to halt tariffs for nighty days helped somehow equity markets and US Dollar, although the party was not long lasting and selloff resumed by the end of the week as investors and traders are always prepare for a new black Monday. UK Gross domestic product show signs of improvement in the UK Economy and this helped the pair to keep upside momentum.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the US -China trade war. The picture could change at any time if US and China will sit on the table of negotiation and cancel or reduce tariffs. UK inflation number will be closely monitor as it will be one of the main catalysts behind and price action on the pair. FED’s Powell is due to speak on Wednesday and is very important to hear what FED’s position will be, during this uncertain period. Short week ahead with many markets closing for eastern holiday. Liquidity will be thin and in combination with market uncertainty could trigger huge price actions in forex markets.
On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, the UK ILO unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.4% On Wednesday, the UK CPI expected lower at 3.4% and the US retail sales pointing higher at 1.3%
Technically the pair’s overall picture is positive after last week’s close above 61.8% at 1.3082 As for this week, if pair trades on the upside, will test 1.3208 (100%) A break and close above 1.3208 will open the road for 1.3300 Alternative, if trades on the downside, will test 1.2782 (61.8%) A break and close below 1.2782 will open the road for 1.2680 Our traders are 100% net short with sell positions between 1.2680 and 1.3200 targeting profits below 1.2600 We are expecting more aggressive short positions on the way up and new long positions starting at 1.2782 (61.8%).
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