Week ahead November 21st – 25th
欧元/美元的基本面和技术面
Pair closed last week’s trading session unchanged after hovering around same higher level as the week before. The pair is struggling to gain more traction as investors are now weighing fundamentals with reality. From the fundamentals point of view the pair has more room to move on the upside as the ECB is more hawkish than ever reiterated that rate hikes will continue till inflation will come back to normal 2%, On the reality side, thing are not so good. Europeans started to feel the pain from high prices, many US firms as Amazon are firing as many as 10,000 workers in Europe. With the winter outside EU’s door, uncertainty grows as for what will happen in the gas supplies. Germany is just one step away from recession and the UK already in recession.
至于本周市场参与者将主要关注FOMC会议记录和美国耐用品订单。预计本次会议不会加息。会议纪要将引导投资者了解FED的下一步计划。耐用品将是美元的最大催化剂，因为这是一个很好的指标，可以确认美国公民是否仍在消费，这意味着美国经济仍然保持。一个比预期差的数字将预示着美国经济陷入困境，并可能引发更多的美元下挫。
在经济日历上，我们有周三，德国综合PMI指向较低的44.9，德国制造业PMI较高的45.2，欧洲综合PMI较低的47.2，美国耐用品保持不变的0.4%，周四，德国IFO商业气候预期较高的85，周五，德国Gfk消费者信心预期较低的-45.3，德国国内生产总值保持不变的1.1%。
Technically the picture is positive after last week’s close above 61.8% In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the upside and close above last week’s higher level (1.0500) could accelerate gains to full recovery of 100% Alternatively, if pair resumes the downside we are expecting to retest 1.0150 (50%). Our traders are sitting on the side and waiting for new indicators on either side. We are expecting short sellers to appear around 1.0600 targeting profits at 1.000 and new buyers around 1.0120 targeting profits above 1.0500
英镑/美元的基本面和技术面
Pair closed last week’s trading session unchanged after hovering around same higher levels. The pair managed to maintain its price as the lack of any FED’s official hawkish comments helped the pair to remain steady. The higher than expected inflation number keep the pair higher as traders and investors are pricing in another 0.5% rate hike on next BOE meeting.
As for this week market participants will focus on the FOMC minutes and US durable goods orders. No rate hike is expected at this meeting. The minutes will guide investors on what next in the FED. The durable goods will be the biggest catalyst for the US Dollar as this is a good indicator to confirm if the US Citizens are still spending, which means that the US economy still holds. A worse than expected number will signal that the US economy is in trouble, and could trigger more US Dollar selloff. As for the GBP the main catalyst will be the speeches from BOE’s officials. Hawkish comments are expected and this could boost the pair higher.
在经济日历上，我们在周三有英国综合PMI指向47.5，英国服务业PMI指向48，美国耐用品将保持在0.4%不变。
Technically the pair is positive as the pair closed above 61.8% In this week’s trading session if pair manages to continue on the upside, will keep the overall picture positive and could open the road to more recovery up to 1.2200 Alternatively a reversal on the downside and a break below (61.8%) could retest 1.1590 (50%) Short sellers are standing firm at 1.1600 and 1.1740 targeting profits around 1.1550 we are expecting new buyers around 1.190 targeting profits above 1.1900
更详细的经济日历事件，请访问我们的实时经济日历。
https://10tradefx.com/economic-calendar/
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