USD Rallies, Gold Gains As Markets Await NFP
Markets were driven by a mix of strong US economic data, shifting rate cut expectations, and heightened geopolitical tensions last week. The US Dollar strengthened on firm PCE and GDP numbers, while gold prices rose as safe-haven demand returned amid growing EU–Russia concerns.
This week, markets will anticipate the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and other key economic releases that could guide central bank policy sentiment.
USD Outperformed on Strong PCE Data and Robust GDP
The US Dollar outperformed its counterparts, the Euro and the GBP, during last week’s trading session, supported by better-than-expected Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data that eased expectations of imminent rate cuts.
The PCE index is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge for assessing inflation and making rate decisions. The 2.9% reading met market expectations and gave the Dollar the momentum needed to close the week higher.
Markets Eye NFP and Central Bank Speeches
Looking ahead to this week, market participants will focus on key economic releases, with the NFP report being the main highlight. Speeches from both Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) officials are also scheduled, potentially offering further insight into future monetary policy directions.
Economic Calendar Outlook – US NFP & ISM Manufacturing PMI
The events on the economic calendar to keep an eye on this week are as follows:
Tuesday: German retail sales is forecasted to be 0.6%, while the UK Gross Domestic Product is expected to come in at 1.2%. The German Consumer Price Index, expected to be 2.2%, is the last major release of the day.
Wednesday: The European core harmonized index of consumer prices is expected to come in at 2.3%, while the US ISM manufacturing PMI is forecast to be 49.2 and ADP employment is thought to reach 30K.
Friday: The US average hourly earnings is expected to be 0.3% while US nonfarm payrolls is expected to be 39K.
Technical Outlook – EURUSD & GBPUSD
Clients technical positions:
EUR/USD: sell 50% buy 50%
GBP/USD: sell 50% buy 50%
EURUSD chart, September 20, 2025. Source: TenTrade.com
GBPUSD chart, September 20, 2025. Source: TenTrade.com
Gold Gains on Rising Geopolitical Tensions
Gold continues to trade higher as geopolitical tensions between the EU and Russia escalate, following reports of Russian fighter jets violating NATO airspace.
Russia’s Foreign Minister attempted to ease concerns during a speech at the UN, stating that Russia has no intention of attacking any EU or NATO member states. However, he warned that any aggression toward Russia would be met with a strong response.
Given the current geopolitical climate, the safe-haven asset is expected to remain in demand, with gold likely to trade at elevated levels.
XAUUSD chart, September 20, 2025. Source: TenTrade.com
US Stocks Climb on Rate Cut Expectations
US equity markets ended last week on a positive note, as investors and traders continued to buy into US stocks amid growing expectations that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates before the end of 2025.
USTEC chart, September 20, 2025. Source: TenTrade.com
Para eventos mais detalhados do calendário econômico, por favor, visite nosso calendário econômico ao vivo em:
https://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/
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