Forex Market Outlook: EURUSD and GBPUSD Key Levels & Economic Drivers
Welcome to this week’s forex market update, where we break down the latest moves in major currency pairs, key economic releases, and technical levels that traders are watching. From Fed commentary to UK inflation data, we highlight the drivers behind market sentiment and potential trading opportunities.
EURUSD Weekly Moves: Dollar Softens, Traders Eye FOMC Minutes
EURUSD closed last week higher, supported by a weaker US Dollar. Throughout the week, equity markets experienced a sharp selloff as fears of an AI-driven bubble spread around the world. The equity selloff drove investors into the safe haven US Dollar, driving the pair lower. The comment from Fed officials regarding a potential December interest rate cut also helped to boost the greenback further as markets shifted to pricing in a ‘no’ rate cut for December.
By the end of the week, however, the cheaper tech stocks attracted buyers, lifting equity markets back into positive territory. The improved sentiment over the weekend weakened the Dollar, helping the EURUSD pair recover some of its earlier losses.
Looking ahead, traders and investors will mainly focus on key technical levels. With a relatively light economic calendar, volatility is expected to remain subdued. The main catalyst behind any price action will be the FOMC minutes due to be released on Wednesday.
EURUSD Levels to Watch: PMIs and Inflation in Focus
On the Economic calendar, Wednesday will bring the European Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, expected to remain unchanged at 2.4%. On Friday, the European Manufacturing PMI is forecasted to come in higher at 50.2 and the US Services PMI is thought to remain unchanged at 54.8
Technically the pair remains neutral after last week’s close above 38.2% at 1.1619. Long positions are targeting profits above 1.700, while short positions are aiming toward 1.1500.
Position sentiment: BUY 60% – SELL 40%.
EURUSD chart, November 16, 2025. Source: TenTrade.com
GBPUSD Technical and Key Catalysts for the Week Ahead
GBPUSD closed last week’s trading session marginally higher, supported by a weaker US Dollar. As mentioned above, the risk-off mood initially pushed investors towards the Dollar but then things shifted and a more positive sentiment weekend the Dollar, allowing GBPUSD to recover some of its earlier losses.
Looking ahead, traders and investors will mainly focus on technical levels and Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. However, the stronger catalyst for price action this week will be the UK CPI release. A softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading is likely to add downside pressure on the pair, as markets begin to price in a potential rate cut from the Bank of England.
GBPUSD Levels to Watch as UK Inflation Hits the Spotlight
On the Economic calendar, Wednesday’s UK CPI is expected to decline to 3.4%. On Friday, UK retail sales are expected lower at 0.1%, while the UK Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 49.7 and the US Services PMI is also thought to remain at the same level of 54.8.
Technically, the pair remains negative after last week’s close below the 50% level at 1.3170. Long positions are still open between 1.3369 and 1.3100, with profit targets set above 1.3500.
Position sentiment: BUY 85% – SELL 15%.
GBPUSD chart, November 16, 2025. Source: TenTrade.com
Key Takeaways
- EURUSD rebounded last week as a weaker US Dollar and tech stock recovery supported the Euro.
- FOMC minutes on Wednesday are the main catalyst for potential volatility this week.
- GBPUSD remains sensitive to UK CPI, with a softer reading likely to pressure the pair lower.
- Technical levels are key: EURUSD neutral above 1.1619, GBPUSD negative below 1.3170.
- Market sentiment shows EURUSD BUY 60% / SELL 40%, GBPUSD BUY 85% / SELL 15%, reflecting trader positioning.
For more detailed economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on:
https://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/
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