Week Ahead November 25th – 29th
EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on ECB’s Lagarde Dovish comments and warnings. On a schedule speech during Friday’s £4th European Banking Congress in Frankfurt, highlighted that the central bank may aggressively reduce interest rates given the recent geopolitical turmoil in Europe and rising uncertainties. The comments have added in odds of a 0.5% interest rate cut in December and drove the pair sharp on the downside. Apart from Lagarde’s’ comments, deteriorated European economic releases, added more downside pressure on the pair. Last week’s geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine weighted negative on Euro as Russia’s Putin threated that his new missiles will likely to strike military targets of countries supporting Ukraine. The renew geological tensions will be the main catalyst behind next weeks’ trading sessions.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the economic calendar, and the central banks’ officials’ speeches during the week. The strongest catalyst behind this week’s price action will be the US PCE index due to be released on Wednesday.
On the economic calendar we have on Wednesday, the US Core personal expenditure to remain unchanged at 0.3%, US Gross domestic product unchanged at 2.8% and US Durable goods orders higher at -0.2% On Thursday, German Consumer price index expected lower at at 0.4% On Friday, German retail sales expected lower at -0.5% and European Harmonized index of consumer prices higher at 2.4%
Technically the picture is negative after last week’s close below (100%) at 1.0415 In this week’s trading session if pair trades on the upside will test 1.0596 (100%) If trades on the downside will test 1.0354 the lowest level of 2022. Our traders are net long with positions between 1.0767 – 1.0500 targeting profits above 1.1000 We are expecting new short positions above 1.0913 and more aggressive long positions on the way down. The pair has entered oversold territory and need to be trade with attention, as a sharp reversal and price correction could take place.
GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on US Dollar demand as safe heaven asset. Last week’s geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine weighted negative on GBP as Russia’s Putin threated that his new missiles will likely to strike military targets of countries supporting Ukraine. The renew geological tensions will be the main catalyst behind next weeks’ trading sessions. The deteriorated UK economic releases weighted negative on GBP although the higher CPI in the UK was overshadowed by the geopolitical tensions and failed to push the pair higher as the higher CPI could waive any interest rate cuts in December.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the US economic calendar and the speeches from FED’s officials. On the GBP side there are not any economic release or any scheduled events so, the pair will be traded in the faith of US dollar during the week.
On the economic calendar we have on Wednesday, the US Core personal expenditure to remain unchanged at 0.3%, US Gross domestic product unchanged at 2.8% and US Durable goods orders higher at -0.2%
Technically the pair’s overall picture is negative after last week’s close below 100%) at 1.2530 As for this week, if pair trades on the upside, will test 1.2677 (100%) Alternative, if trades on the downside, will test year’s lower levels of 1.2340. Our traders are net long between 1.3038 and 1.2615 targeting profits above 1.3038 We are expecting new short positions above 1.2973 and more aggressive long positions on the way down. Pair entered oversold territory and is expected to have a price correction and reversal on the upside.
Para conocer con más detalle los acontecimientos del calendario económico, visite nuestro calendario económico en directo en:
https://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/
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