Week Ahead February 3rd – 7th
EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on ECB’s rate cut and FED’s unchanged policy. ECB lower interest rates by 0.25% as it was widely expected and maintain future policy unchanged without signaling any projections on future interest rate path. FED maintained interest rates unchanged as it was expected with future policy unchanged. The pair closed last week’s lower on higher CPI from Germany and steady PCE from the US.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on US non-farm payrolls. The US labor market expected to add 170k new jobs. A lower number than last month but steady increase could boost US Dollar and push the pair lower. Although Trump’ tariffs on European products could change the pair’s direction at any time and US dollar could lose strength.
On the economic calendar we have on Monday the European Harmonized index of consumer prices pointing lower at 2.6% and US ISM manufacturing PMI pointing higher at 49.5 On Wednesday, US ADP employment expected to show 150K new jobs and US ISM services PMI expected higher at 54.3 on Friday, US non-farm payroll expected at 170k and average hourly earnings steady at 0.3%
Technically the picture turn negative after last week’s close blow (23.6%) at 1.0358 In this week’s trading session if pair trades on the upside will test 1.0470 (38.2%) A break out and close above 1,0470 will change the picture to positive and open the road for 1.0651 If trades on the downside will test 1.0180 A break and close below 1.0180 will add downside pressure and test 1.0100 Our traders are net long with positions between 1.0767 – 1.0380 targeting profits above 1.1000 We are expecting new short positions above 1.0651 and more aggressive long positions on the way down.
GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session lower on FED’s unchanged policy. FED maintained interest rates unchanged as it was expected with future policy unchanged. The pair closed last week’s lower on steady PCE from the US. The lack of any economic events in the UK let the pair trade lower on US dollar strength.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus US non-farm payrolls, and BOE interest rate decision. BOE is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25% even though this is expected and priced in the press conference that will follow will guide traders through the next steps of BOE. The MPs voting could generate significant upside move for the pair if the 5 out of 7 will vote for no cut. The US labor market expected to add 170k new jobs. A lower number compare to last month’s but steady increase could boost US Dollar and push the pair lower.
On the economic calendar we have on Monday the US ISM manufacturing PMI pointing higher at 49.5 On Wednesday, US ADP employment expected to show 150K new jobs and US ISM services PMI expected higher at 54.3 on Thursday, BOE interest rate decision. On Friday, US non-farm payroll expected at 170k and average hourly earnings steady at 0.3%
Technically the pair’s overall picture is negative after last week’s close below 38.2% at 1.2392 As for this week, if pair trades on the upside, will test 1.2566 (50%) A break and close above 1.2566 will change the picture to positive and will open the road for 1.2677 Alternative, if trades on the downside, will test 1.2319 (23.6%) A break and close below 1.2319 will open the road for 1.2100 Our traders are net long between 1.3038 and 1.2458 targeting profits above 1.3038 We are expecting new short positions above 1.2677 and more aggressive long positions on the way down.
Para conocer con más detalle los acontecimientos del calendario económico, visite nuestro calendario económico en directo en:
https://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/
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