February 24th – 28th
EURUSD pair closed last week’s trading session marginally lower on some profit takings ahead of this week’s German election results. The pair traded in a narrow range last week as Trump’s tariffs are still weighted by investors. European markets are muted ahead of German elections as Europe’s largest economy is looking for a new government to get Germany out of recession. FOMC minutes did not generate any significant volatility. As it was expected no change in policy is been made with the minutes highlighting again that any future change in policy will be data depended and inflation related.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the German election’s outcome. With the CDU party of Merz ahead and possible winner, Investors will need to wait for a coalition that could govern Germany and get the economy out of stagnation. The CPI releases from Europe and US PCE will be the strongest catalyst behind any price action on the pair.
On the economic calendar we have on Monday, the European Harmonized index of consumer prices to remain unchanged at 2.7% On Thursday, US Gross domestic product to remain unchanged at 2.3%, US durable goods orders higher at 1.3% On Friday, German retail sales are expected to remain unchanged at 0%, German CPI expected lower at 2.6% and US PCE higher at 0.3%
Technically the picture is neutral after last week’s close just on (38.2%) at 1.0457 In this week’s trading session if pair trades on the upside will test 1.0560 (50%) A break out and close above 1,0560 will change the picture to positive and open the road for 1.0651 If trades on the downside will test 1.0359 A break and close below 1.0359 will add downside pressure and test 1.0173 Our traders are 100% net long with positions between 1.0767 – 1.0636 targeting profits above 1.1000 We are expecting new short positions above 1.0651 and new long positions starting at 1.0359
GBPUSD pair closed last week’s trading session higher on UK CPI higher release. The UK inflation came out higher than expectations, adding pressure on BOE to keep interest rates unchanged or maybe even increase interest rates given last week’s 3% CPI. FOMC minutes kept US Dollar muted as policy remained unchanged as it was widely expected.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the US PCE as the main catalyst for any price action. The lack of any high impact economic releases from the UK will keep the pair trading within technical levels.
On the economic calendar we have on Thursday, the US Gross domestic product to remain unchanged at 2.3%, US durable goods orders pointing higher at 1.3% On Friday, the US PCE expected higher at 0.3%
Technically the pair’s overall picture is positive after last week’s close above 50% at 1.2630 As for this week, if pair trades on the upside, will test 1.2675 (61.8%) A break and close above 1.2675 will open the road for 1.2782 Alternative, if trades on the downside, will test 1.2567 (50%) A break and close below 1.2567 will open the road for 1.2461 Our traders are 100% net long between 1.3038 and 1.2675 targeting profits above 1.3038 We are expecting new short positions above 1.2677 and new long positions at 1.2567 and 1.2461
For more detailed economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on:
https://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/
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