EURUSD & GBPUSD Weekly Outlook: CPI, PCE, and Central Banks
EURUSD and GBPUSD both closed last week higher, supported by softer-than-expected US inflation data and easing market fears. With the US Dollar weakening, both pairs recovered lost ground, while central bank guidance and key economic releases continue to shape market sentiment. Traders will closely watch this week’s European CPI, US PCE, and central bank speeches for clues on the next interest rate moves.
EURUSD Forecast: Inflation Data and Fed Speeches in Focus
EURUSD closed last week higher, supported by lower-than-expected US PPI data. AI-related fears in equity markets eased, prompting money to flow back into risk assets. As a result, the US Dollar weakened, allowing the pair to recover all losses from the previous trading week. Meanwhile, ECB officials maintained a consistent stance in their recent remarks, emphasising that interest rates will remain elevated until inflation stabalises – another factor that helped lift the pair.
Looking to the week ahead, traders and investors will mainly focus on the economic calendar, with the main catalyst being the European CPI and US PCE figures. Numerous speeches from both ECB and Fed officials are also scheduled, and markets will closely monitor Fed commentary for clues regarding the upcoming FOMC interest rate decision.
On the economic calendar, Monday will see the release of the US ISM manufacturing PMI, expected to come in lower at 48.6. On Tuesday, the highlight of the day will be the European Harmonized index of consumer prices, which is expected to come in higher at 2.5%. On Wednesday, the release of the ADP employment report is expected to add 20K new jobs, and the US ISM services PMI report is expected to come in lower at 52.1. On Friday, the release of the European gross domestic product is forecast to remain steady at 1.4%, while the US Personal consumption expenditure report is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2%, and the Michigan consumer sentiment is thought to come in higher at 52.
Technically, the pair is positive after last week’s close above 38.2% at 1.1596. Traders’ long positions are targeting profits above 1.1700 and sell positions targeting profits at 1.1500
Position sentiment: BUY 70% – SELL 30%
GBPUSD chart, November 29, 2025. Source: TenTrade.com
GBUSD Weekly Forecast: US PCE and Central Bank Speeches Ahead
GBPUSD closed last week’s trading higher on lower than expected US PPI. As AI-related fears eased in equity markets, investor flows returned to risk assets, weakening the US Dollar and helping the pair recover the previous week’s losses. The UK budget release, initially pushed the GBP lower, but the dip attracted some buyers, pushing the pair back up. Predictions for a 1.5% economic expansion, as outlined by Chancellor Reeves, further boosted GBP demand and helped the pair maintain a bullish momentum.
As for this week, traders and investors will mainly focus on the economic calendar with the main catalyst being the US PCE. Many speeches from both BOE and Fed officials are due during the week. Investors and traders will mainly focus on those from Fed officials, as they may provide clues on the upcoming FOMC interest rate decision.
On the Economic calendar, Monday will bring the US ISM manufacturing PMI, expected to point lower at 48.6 On Wednesday, the ADP employment report is expected to add 20K new jobs, while the US ISM services PMI is expected to come in lower at 52.1. On Friday, the US Personal consumption expenditure is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2%, and the Michigan consumer sentiment is forecast to come in higher at 52.
Technically, the pair is neutral after last week’s close just below 50% at 13226. Long positions are still open between 1.3369 – 1.3100, targeting profits above 1.3500 and short positions targeting profits at 1.3100.
Position sentiment: BUY 80% – SELL 20%
GBPUSD chart, November 29, 2025. Source: TenTrade.com
Key Takeaways
EURUSD and GBPUSD closed last week higher, supported by softer-than-expected US PPI and a weaker US Dollar.
Market attention remains on central bank guidance, with ECB and BOE officials keeping focus on inflation and interest rates.
This week, key economic events include European CPI, US PCE, ISM data, ADP employment figures, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Traders will closely watch speeches from Fed and BOE officials for indications on upcoming interest rate decisions.
Technically, EURUSD remains positive above 1.1596, with long positions targeting 1.1700 and shorts aiming for 1.1500, while overall sentiment shows 70% of traders leaning long.
For more detailed economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on:
https://tentrade.com/economic-calendar/
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